← Back to all news
arXiv Machine Learning By Xulong Wang, Po Yang

Accurate prediction is not profitable advice: profit-based evaluation of machine learning nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

The study evaluates machine learning models for nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat by directly scoring profit loss on 892 yield response curves, rather than relying on prediction accuracy. Results show that none of the models recover the best rate within farm tolerance, and at typical prices all models underperform standard UK advice. A simple post‑model correction step reduces profit losses by up to 43% without retraining, while a hybrid approach further mitigates bias and large losses.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

Related stories

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

Profit based evaluation of machine learning for nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat

The study evaluates machine learning for nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat by directly scoring profit loss on 892 yield response curves, rather than relying on prediction accuracy. Results show that ML models alone fail to recover the best nitrogen rate within farm tolerance and underperform standard UK advice across price scenarios. However, a simple post‑model correction step significantly reduces profit losses, and a hybrid approach combining standard advice with a damped correction eliminates bias and large losses.

By Xulong Wang, Po Yang
benchmarkssafety
More like this →
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 27

Profit based evaluation of machine learning for nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat

The paper evaluates machine learning for nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat by directly scoring the profit lost on measured yield response curves, rather than relying on prediction accuracy. Using 892 yield curves from UK experiments, the authors find that machine learning models fail to recover the best nitrogen rate within farm tolerance and generally underperform standard UK advice in terms of profit. However, a simple post‑model correction step can reduce profit losses by up to 43% without retraining, suggesting that machine learning can enhance standard advice rather than replace it.

benchmarkssafety
More like this →
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets

arXiv:2606. 29248v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up.

By Ranuga Weerasekara, Heshan Nethmina, Manuja Ranathunga, Vinma Wettasinghe, Dinithi Navodya, Subavarshana Arumugam, Nirasha Munasinghe, Nisansa de Silva, Sandareka Wickramanayake
computer-vision
More like this →
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 29

Non-Linear Model-Based Sequential Decision-Making in Agriculture

arXiv:2509. 01924v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Agricultural decision-making faces a dual challenge: sustaining high yields to meet global food security needs while reducing the environmental impacts of input use, including fertilizer losses and other agrochemical applications such as herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides.

By Sakshi Arya, Wentao Lin
reinforcement-learning
More like this →