The paper introduces DeepX-GAN, a deep generative model that captures spatial dependence in rare climate extremes. It can simulate statistically plausible unseen heat extremes—both direct-hit and near-miss events—beyond the observed record. Applied to the Middle East and North Africa, the model shows that unseen heat extremes disproportionately affect vulnerable countries and that future warming could create new persistent hotspots, underscoring the need for spatially adaptive resilience planning.
By Xinyue Liu, Xiao Peng, Shuyue Yan, Yuntian Chen, Dongxiao Zhang, Zhixiao Niu, Hui-Min Wang, Xiaogang He
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2603. 12828v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper addresses a missing capability in infrastructure resilience: turning fast, global AI weather forecasts into asset-scale, actionable risk intelligence.
By You Wu, Zhenguo Wang, Naiyu Wang
arXiv:2606. 11463v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend.
By Thomas Mbrice, Shashwat Panigrahi
A new algorithm has been developed that can generate scenarios for extreme events, even when there is no historical data on such events. The algorithm is designed to anticipate unprecedented situations that critical infrastructure and global supply chains are least prepared for. By creating these scenarios, the tool aims to help stakeholders better understand and plan for potential disruptions.
By Jennifer Chu | MIT News
arXiv:2605. 20494v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss.
By Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall
arXiv:2603. 05710v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI development's current trajectory risks automating and amplifying the North-South divide in the global climate information system.
By Amirpasha Mozaffari, Amanda Duarte, Lina Teckentrup, Stefano Materia, Gina E. C. Charnley, Lluis Palma, Eulalia Baulenas Serra, Dragana Bojovic, Paula Checchia, Aude Carreric, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
arXiv:2608. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting.
By Anna Allen, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Michael Maier-Gerber, Harrison Cook, Matthew Chantry, Richard E. Turner
arXiv:2608. 04327v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries.
By Yusuke Oishi, Takashi Furumura, Fumihiko Imamura
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
By Renu Singh, Robert Brunstein, Antonia Jost, Yana Hasson, Thomas Rackow, Claire Monteleoni, Christian Lessig, Guillaume Couairon
arXiv:2607. 21444v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure is a cornerstone of sustainable, low-carbon cities, yet urban climate stress such as extreme heat, heavy precipitation, and humidity increasingly raises equipment fault risk and undermines the resilience of urban energy and mobility services.
By Cande Lian (School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China), Wentao Zeng (School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China), Jiabin Wu (School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China), Yiming Bie (School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, China), Wei Zhou (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore)