The article introduces the TAISE framework, which uses AI weather forecasting models to generate coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of the cost of traditional catastrophe risk models. By self‑iteratively producing continuous global atmospheric fields, TAISE captures temporal continuity and cross‑regional correlations that snapshot‑based methods miss. A proof‑of‑concept experiment shows an order‑of‑magnitude reduction in computational cost while maintaining key statistical properties of extreme events.
By Hang Gao
The paper introduces DeepX-GAN, a deep generative model that captures spatial dependence in rare climate extremes. It can simulate statistically plausible unseen heat extremes—both direct-hit and near-miss events—beyond the observed record. Applied to the Middle East and North Africa, the model shows that unseen heat extremes disproportionately affect vulnerable countries and that future warming could create new persistent hotspots, underscoring the need for spatially adaptive resilience planning.
By Xinyue Liu, Xiao Peng, Shuyue Yan, Yuntian Chen, Dongxiao Zhang, Zhixiao Niu, Hui-Min Wang, Xiaogang He
To support the safety of highly-capable AI systems, we are developing our approach to catastrophic risk preparedness, including building a Preparedness team and launching a challenge.
The article "Supply Chain Analytics: A Data-Driven Approach" presents a mathematically rigorous framework that integrates statistical learning with robust decision-making for logistics and operations management. It covers topics from empirical demand forecasting to optimal inventory and network control under uncertainty, including sample minimization, dynamic programming for inventory replenishment, network fulfillment, and distributionally robust optimization using transport theory. The work also links predictive models with prescriptive algorithms such as column generation for vehicle routing and non‑homogeneous queueing regimes, offering both theoretical foundations and algorithmic guidance for building resilient, automated supply chain systems.
By Elioth Sanabria
arXiv:2608.22421v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: World models predict action-conditioned futures and serve as critical internal simulators for downstream planning and control. However, catastrophic pr...
By Zhanpeng Shi, Zi Liang, Rong Feng, Shiqin Tang, Xuyang Chen, Hongzong Li
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2607. 14353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As automated decision-making and data-driven technologies pervade society and are used to manage consequential outcomes, understanding the technology's capabilities, limitations, and attendant risks in context requires analysis of full sociotechnical systems.
By Joshua A. Kroll, Andrew Smart, R. Stuart Geiger, Abigail Z. Jacobs
OutageDiT is a generative foundation model that produces seven‑day power‑outage trajectories at quarter‑hour resolution, trained on nationwide outage and weather data. It uses a condition encoder to process historical context and future covariates, and a shallow flow decoder to generate full trajectories, enabling point forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and conditional event simulation. The model outperforms strong baselines on forecasting benchmarks and can transfer zero‑shot to unseen regions, linking outage simulation to operational planning under uncertainty.
By Yunqin Zhu, Feng Qiu, Yao Xie
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2607. 24168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide.
By Jingwen Zhu, Keshu Wu, Pei Li, Steven T. Parker, Bin Ran, David A. Noyce
arXiv:2608. 09846v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents a methodological framework for real-time climate risk assessment using data-driven nowcasting techniques to enhance supply chain resilience in Colombian agricultural contexts.
By Hernan J. Silva-Sosa
arXiv:2603. 04818v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Disruptions at critical logistics nodes pose severe risks to global supply chains, yet existing risk prediction systems typically prioritize forecasting accuracy without providing operationally interpretable early warnings.
By Zhiming Xue, Yujue Wang, Menghao Huo