arXiv Machine Learning

Responsiveness Verification: Will Predictions Change? How Much? How Often?

arXiv:2507. 02169v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning models are often used in applications where their inputs change due to routine interactions, strategic manipulation, or noise.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

Observational Multiplicity

The paper introduces the concept of observational multiplicity, where multiple probabilistic classifiers can perform similarly yet produce conflicting predictions, undermining interpretability and safety. It proposes measuring this arbitrariness through a regret metric that captures how predictions could shift with different training labels. The authors present a general method to estimate regret, show it varies across dataset groups, and discuss its use for safety via abstention and targeted data collection.

By Erin George, Deanna Needell, Berk Ustun