arXiv Machine Learning

RiskBlend: A Multi-Signal Framework for Test Input Prioritization in Machine Learning Regression Testing

arXiv AI
Aug 28

Diagnosing Conformal Prediction Failures Under Distribution Shift: A COVID-19 Case Study

The paper introduces SHAP concentration as a pre‑deployment diagnostic for detecting when conformal prediction will fail under distribution shift, specifically in gradient‑boosted classifiers. Using a COVID‑19 supply‑chain case study, the authors show that higher feature‑importance concentration correlates with larger drops in coverage, while standard shift detectors cannot differentiate between catastrophic and robust outcomes. The diagnostic is validated on additional datasets, and a formal theorem links concentration to worsening conformity‑score bounds, though it does not capture global‑sensitivity failures in neural networks.

By Chorok Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Distribution-free Deviation Bounds and The Role of Domain Knowledge in Learning via Model Selection with Cross-validation Risk Estimation

arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.

By Diego Marcondes, Cl\'audia Peixoto
arXiv AI
Oct 16

Are You Sure Your LLM Is Sure? Repairing and Auditing Confidence

The paper introduces RADAR, a framework for repairing and auditing confidence scores in large language models (LLMs). It separates confidence repair from deployment decisions and from error auditing, proposing Probe‑Anchored Isotonic Calibration (PAIC) for monotone mapping and a prompt‑clustered kernel test for detecting residual errors. Experiments across checkpoints and benchmarks show that richer predictors can improve confidence estimation, but projecting back to a scalar score can lose gains, and lower prediction risk does not always lead to better review decisions.

By Arijit Dey, Bhartendu Kumar, Ramya Hebbalaguppe, Khuushi Maheshwari
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 10

Prediction-Powered Active Testing

arXiv:2607. 08347v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled.

By Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Valentin Kilian, Daolang Huang, Tom Rainforth, Fran\c{c}ois Caron