In many domains such as Palliative Care, Credit Assignment and Recommender Systems, predictions may causally influence the outcomes they predict. This phenomena is known as Outcome Performativity.
arXiv:2601. 17146v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended.
By Amanda Coston
arXiv:2505. 08908v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many researchers apply classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies.
By Benedikt Koch, Kosuke Imai
arXiv:2607. 21806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice.
By Jonathan Zhang, Erik Skalnes, Jacob Chen, Michael Oberst
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
By Yurui Zheng, Ying Jin
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
By Ashwin Singh, Carlos Castillo
arXiv:2602. 04402v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast.
By Julian Rodemann, Unai Fischer-Abaigar, James Bailie, Krikamol Muandet
arXiv:2607. 28497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic recourse aims to provide individuals with actionable changes to improve their predicted outcomes in high-stakes classification settings, such as loan and mortgage applications.
By Srikanth Avasarala, Varun Gupta, Shahin Jabbari, Saber Salehkaleybar, Juba Ziani
arXiv:2607. 05620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In many decision-making settings, new interventions are acceptable only if they do not reduce outcomes below some established threshold.
By Katherine Avery, Bruno Castro da Silva, David Jensen
arXiv:2607. 04315v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies the problem of identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO), which captures the potential outcome of an intervention while excluding the pathway transmitted through a mediator that researchers may wish to remove from evaluation.
By Harsh Shrivastava, Yuta Kawakami, Junpei Komiyama, Jin Tian
arXiv:2608. 12477v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical prediction models are often developed as if the outcome of interest were cleanly observed for every patient.
By Xiaobin Shen, Chloe Y. H. Huang, Jonathan Elmer, George H. Chen
arXiv:2508. 07872v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Uncertainty in artificial intelligence (AI) predictions raises pressing legal and ethical questions for AI-assisted decision-making.
By Holli Sargeant, Mackenzie Jorgensen, Arina Shah, Sam Goring, Adrian Weller, Umang Bhatt