In many domains such as Palliative Care, Credit Assignment and Recommender Systems, predictions may causally influence the outcomes they predict. This phenomena is known as Outcome Performativity.
arXiv:2607. 26908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In many domains such as Palliative Care, Credit Assignment and Recommender Systems, predictions may causally influence the outcomes they predict.
arXiv:2505. 08908v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many researchers apply classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies.
arXiv:2601. 17146v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended.
arXiv:2607. 21806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice.
The paper evaluates machine learning models that predict retention and premature discontinuation in medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD). Using the Treatment Episode Data Set-Discharges (TEDS‑D) from 2015‑2019, the authors trained four models and examined overall performance as well as subgroup error rates by race, ethnicity, age, and sex. They also tested bias‑mitigation techniques, finding that these can reduce but not eliminate performance gaps without harming predictive accuracy.
The paper argues that traditional probabilistic fairness metrics can miss significant disparities in the actual consequences of decisions. By introducing a utility-based framework, the authors show that a process can satisfy ε-fairness yet still be maximally unfair when utilities are considered. They apply this framework to college admissions and credit‑risk assessment, demonstrating that equalizing probabilities alone may mask unequal utility outcomes across groups.
arXiv:2608. 19501v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diagnostic medical tests and devices provide useful information for evaluating the potential benefits and risks of therapeutic treatments.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2608. 12477v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical prediction models are often developed as if the outcome of interest were cleanly observed for every patient.
arXiv:2608. 05235v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Research agents increasingly conduct multi-round machine-learning experiments in industrial recommendation settings and retain the resulting trajectories to guide later decisions.
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
The paper introduces VERDICT, an LLM-based agent that converts clinical trial matching tasks into SMT problems to ensure consistent policy application and accountable decisions. VERDICT outperforms other LLM-only and neurosymbolic baselines on accuracy, achieves perfect policy consistency, and generates clinician-preferred rationales grounded in explicit assumptions and pivotal conditions. It also demonstrates improved counterfactual self‑faithfulness, meaning changes in pivotal conditions appropriately alter decisions.