arXiv:2607. 21806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice.
By Jonathan Zhang, Erik Skalnes, Jacob Chen, Michael Oberst
arXiv:2605. 05882v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial-intelligence systems are becoming ubiquitous in society, yet their predictions typically inherit biases with respect to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age.
By Filip Edstr\"om, Guilherme W. F. Barros, Tetiana Gorbach, Xavier de Luna
Researchers use synthetic survey respondents generated by large language models as substitutes for human samples, but current validation methods often compare them to human surveys in ways that may not reflect real-world consequential behaviour. The authors propose a new validation framework that requires explicit statements of how well synthetic data correspond to human behaviour, specifies which diagnostics are addressed, and demands subgroup-level validity claims to avoid misrepresentation. The framework operationalises distributional, procedural, and recognition justice dimensions and introduces within-persona counterfactual experiments, illustrated with a case study on electric vehicle charging tariffs and concluded with a reporting checklist for researchers.
By Florian Kutzner, Celina Kacperski, Laura de Moli\`ere, Edoardo Chidichimo, Min Jun Jung, Felix Patrick Sedgwick Wallis, James Kunling He
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
By Ashwin Singh, Carlos Castillo
arXiv:2607. 26908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In many domains such as Palliative Care, Credit Assignment and Recommender Systems, predictions may causally influence the outcomes they predict.
By Brandon Gower-Winter, Georg Krempl
The paper proposes Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework that requires regulated institutions to maintain a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) separating allowable from disallowed causal pathways in high‑risk machine learning systems. CEG introduces the Causal Harm Rate to quantify prediction variation due to disallowed pathways and pairs each decision with a signed Decision‑Evidence Packet (DEP) that cryptographically links the prediction to the DAG and path‑specific attributions, enabling efficient inclusion proofs via a Merkle tree. Empirical validation on synthetic credit data and the German Credit dataset demonstrates that CEG more clearly isolates causal effects than traditional fairness metrics and that a proof‑of‑concept implementation shows operational feasibility with manageable performance tradeoffs.
By Samah Kareem, Bar{\i}\c{s} \c{C}elikta\c{s}