arXiv:2606. 18686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score.
arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate domain expertise, assess prediction plausibility, and...
arXiv:2608.30976v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate doma...
arXiv:2608. 11216v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World modeling is an unsettled field: architectures, training objectives, and state representations interact in complex ways, and no single recipe dominates across environments.
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.
arXiv:2606. 01498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains.
arXiv:2605. 22681v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: AI systems are increasingly used to support forward-looking scientific judgment, but it remains unclear whether they can form reliable expectations about future scientific advances.
arXiv:2606. 02497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation.
Large language models (LLMs), and the agents built on top of them, are now benchmarked heavily on whether they can finish a task -- fix a bug, drive a browser, operate a GUI. A complementary social ability, namely how well a model understands and forecasts the way real social events unfold, has barely been measured.
arXiv:2609.25001v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern video games provide a measurable testbed for AI models, combining abilities of visual understanding, instruction decomposition, goal planning, a...
arXiv:2608.23058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) now support forecasting systems that combine language-based reasoning with temporal data, evidence retrieval, external too...
arXiv:2608. 03031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features.