arXiv:2606. 28553v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In many real-world applications, such as retail sales, energy usage, and supply chain planning, forecasting is performed across hierarchical structures.
By Ruchi Pakhle
The paper presents a Causal Graph‑Informed Temporal Convolutional Network (CG‑TCN) that fuses a learned causal graph with a temporal convolutional network to forecast retail electricity prices. By decomposing price series into multi‑resolution trends and discovering a causal graph over these components and key covariates, the model conditions its convolutions and attention on causal pathways. On ten years of Ohio residential contracts, CG‑TCN outperforms benchmarks, achieving MAEps of 3.08%, 3.82%, and 5.43% for one‑, ten‑, and fifteen‑step‑ahead forecasts, respectively.
By Yufan Ji, Abdollah Shafieezadeh, Noah Dormady
arXiv:2609.06085v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Understanding the joint dynamics of prices and trades is central to market microstructure, where returns and order flow interact through nonlinear an...
By Manuel Naviglio, Fabrizio Lillo
arXiv:2607. 28124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves.
By Xu Zheng, Wei Cheng, Zhuomin Chen, Mo Sha, Jingchao Ni, Dongsheng Luo
arXiv:2609.25179v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) is essential for effective predictive maintenance. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs), which ca...
By Ya Song, Laurens Bliek, Yaoxin Wu, Yingqian Zhang
arXiv:2503. 24007v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In time series forecasting, covariates represent external factors that influence target variables.
By Yosuke Yamaguchi, Issei Suemitsu, Wenpeng Wei