The paper investigates whether compact surrogate models can reduce the cost of simulating large language model (LLM) societies while still reproducing their collective behavior. Using 9,455 published trajectories and new opinion‑dynamics experiments, it finds that incorporating neighbor information improves individual predictions across all 16 public‑data settings and enhances pooled collective forecasts on held‑out questions, though the collective gains vary with transfer conditions. Additional tests on 24 new statements do not confirm earlier contrasting history effects, and Qwen shows benefit from history only after three observed rounds, underscoring the need for direct collective validation, explicit limits on available observations, and comparisons with simple baselines.
arXiv:2607. 03695v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed in interacting populations, raising the question of what such populations come to believe collectively.
arXiv:2604.11312v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large Language Models are increasingly deployed as interacting agents in settings such as online platforms, recommendation systems, and multi...
The study audits 576 LLM-based social simulations from 350 papers using the PIMMUR framework, which evaluates agent profile, interaction, memory, minimal control, unawareness, and realism. Results show that PIMMUR principles are met more often than minimal control, unawareness, and realism, with frontier LLMs correctly identifying the underlying experiment in 65.2% of cases and half of prompts pre‑determining outcomes. Reproducing five experiments revealed that many reported collective phenomena disappear or reverse when PIMMUR principles are enforced, suggesting that apparent emergent behaviors may be methodological artifacts rather than genuine social dynamics.
arXiv:2608. 16578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI agents increasingly operate as part of interacting systems rather than in isolation.
arXiv:2605. 25929v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The effectiveness of multi-agent LLM deliberation depends not only on the agents' individual predictions, but also on how they communicate and collaborate.
arXiv:2607. 18269v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The wisdom of crowds -- the finding that aggregating judgments across individuals often outperforms the best individual -- has been extensively studied with human forecasters.
arXiv:2609.22497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The aggregation of many lay estimates often outperforms individual expert judgment, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. While this is usually a...
The paper introduces a digital‑twin framework that simulates opinion dynamics in real Twitter networks by assigning agents attributes such as persona, emotions, centrality, stubbornness, and influence, and using Mistral‑7B to update opinions based on memory and social exposure. Validation on COVID‑19 and U.S. election 2020 datasets shows the framework reproduces opinion trajectories, reducing prediction error by over 50% compared to classical baselines, and improves structural alignment and polarization dynamics. Ablation studies reveal that agent attributes, memory, and social exposure all contribute to predictive fidelity, with agent attributes being the most critical.
arXiv:2604. 02668v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit sycophancy: agreement with user stance even when it conflicts with the model's opinion.
arXiv:2607. 01661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration.
arXiv:2604. 18576v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark.
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.