arXiv Machine Learning

On Unlearning for Time-series Forecasting

The paper introduces RDTU, a Residual Diffusion framework designed to enable efficient unlearning in time‑series forecasting models. RDTU first generates a deletion‑compatible base forecast using a retained‑set neural tangent kernel predictor, then assesses the structural support of affected windows via volume contribution metrics, and finally applies a diffusion model to produce residual corrections that approximate counterfactual forecasts. These pseudo‑labels guide a lightweight update, resulting in models that closely match those obtained by exact retraining after data deletion.

arXiv AI
Sep 4

RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

RATL is a plug‑in method for multivariate time‑series forecasting that uses a frozen base forecaster to build a memory of its historical forecast residuals. During inference, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar past contexts and employs a set‑aware router to combine them, providing learned feedback correction. Experiments demonstrate that this residual‑retrieval approach improves the performance of the base forecaster across various benchmarks and backbones.

By Yuchen He, Yueyang Cang, Zhiyuan Ning, Ningyu Wang, Li Shi
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2

LeNEPA: No-Augmentation Next-Latent Prediction for Time-Series Representation Learning

arXiv:2607. 00958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances.

By Alexander Chemeris, Ming Jin, Randall Balestriero
arXiv AI
6d ago

On the Divergence of Accuracy and Mechanism Consistency in Time Series World Models

The paper introduces a formal framework and benchmark for time‑series world models (TSWMs) that separates state, actions, and exogenous inputs, and defines a new metric called mechanism consistency to evaluate whether model predictions move in the expected direction when actions change. Experiments on eight public datasets show that using a frozen latent prediction space and gated output fusion improves prediction accuracy, while prediction error and mechanism consistency often diverge, with the best‑performing models sometimes failing to exhibit consistent directional responses. Adding a directional supervision loss significantly boosts mechanism consistency without affecting mean‑absolute error, providing a practical recipe for building more reliable TSWMs.

By Haochen Zhang, Jiaheng Guo, Zhen Xu, Zachary Plotkin, Nicholas Konz, Zhen Tan, Tianlong Chen