arXiv:2608. 19488v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Production machine learning systems degrade under concept drift, yet practitioners have little principled guidance on when to retrain.
arXiv:2505. 15354v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-series forecasting is a critical task in various business domains, but it remains inherently challenging.
arXiv:2608. 04051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world time series are often governed by recurring patterns, but their dominant periods may vary across datasets, forecasting settings, and individual input windows.
arXiv:2609.24862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning s...
arXiv:2605. 00015v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalization capability and data efficiency in time series forecasting through large-scale pretraining.
The paper introduces the Continuous Evolution Pool (CEP), a replay‑free framework for online time series forecasting that tackles recurring concept drift. CEP maintains a dynamic pool of specialized forecasters, using lightweight statistical genes to identify concepts, spawn new models when distribution shifts occur, and prune obsolete ones under memory limits. Experiments on real‑world datasets show CEP reduces forecasting error by up to 24% compared to state‑of‑the‑art baselines, especially in scenarios with pronounced recurring drift.
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
RATL is a plug‑in method for multivariate time‑series forecasting that uses a frozen base forecaster to build a memory of its historical forecast residuals. During inference, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar past contexts and employs a set‑aware router to combine them, providing learned feedback correction. Experiments demonstrate that this residual‑retrieval approach improves the performance of the base forecaster across various benchmarks and backbones.
Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
arXiv:2608. 10433v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-series forecasters increasingly accompany numerical predictions with explicit temporal reports, such as delays or selected history, but a correct report need not describe the information actually used by the forecast.
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks.
Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time...