arXiv Statistics ML

RACE: Residual-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for Neighbor-Rich Time-Series Foundation Model Forecasting

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7

Align-RAG: Alignment Is All You Need for TSFM In-Context Learning

arXiv:2608. 05571v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-augmented forecasting promises to adapt frozen Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) to new domains without fine-tuning, but recent methods typically rely on learned fusion modules, i.

By Mohammad Asadi, Soheil Hor, Bardiya Akhbari, Jack W. O'Sullivan, Tahoura Nedaee, Layne C. Price, Raviteja Anantha, Euan Ashley, Ehsan Adeli
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Continuous Evolution Pool: Taming Recurring Concept Drift in Online Time Series Forecasting

The paper introduces the Continuous Evolution Pool (CEP), a replay‑free framework for online time series forecasting that tackles recurring concept drift. CEP maintains a dynamic pool of specialized forecasters, using lightweight statistical genes to identify concepts, spawn new models when distribution shifts occur, and prune obsolete ones under memory limits. Experiments on real‑world datasets show CEP reduces forecasting error by up to 24% compared to state‑of‑the‑art baselines, especially in scenarios with pronounced recurring drift.

By Tianxiang Zhan, Ming Jin, Yuanpeng He, Yuxuan Liang, Shirui Pan
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

NetBurst: Event-Centric Forecasting of Bursty, Intermittent Time Series

arXiv:2510. 22397v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Network operators monitor their infrastructure by collecting telemetry data such as packet counts, byte rates, or flow volumes, yet answering the questions that effective operations demand -- forecasting future load, diagnosing and characterizing anomalies, and searching for and retrieving historical precedents -- requires more than raw measurements.

By Satyandra Guthula, Jaber Daneshamooz, Charles Fleming, Kesheng Wu, Walter Willinger, Arpit Gupta