arXiv Machine Learning

Taking a Second Look: Correcting Sea Ice Forecasts with Sparse Observations

arXiv AI
Sep 28

AUWave: A Data-Driven Model for Reconstructing Significant Wave Heights Using Sparse Observations

AUWave is a hybrid deep‑learning framework that reconstructs high‑resolution regional significant wave height (SWH) fields from sparse buoy observations. By combining a station‑wise encoder with a multi‑scale U‑Net enhanced by self‑attention, it outperforms a baseline model, especially when more than one buoy is available, and identifies critical anchor stations through buoy ablation studies. Cross‑basin tests in the Atlantic and Pacific demonstrate the model’s robustness and portability, suggesting its applicability for operational ocean monitoring and data assimilation.

By Hongyuan Shi, Yilin Zhai, Ping Dong, Zaijin You, Chao Zhan, Qing Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland

arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.

By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

PCA-Enhanced Adaptive NVAR Framework for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in the East Sea

arXiv:2606. 12141v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) in regional seas such as the East Sea is crucial for monitoring marine ecosystems, assessing climate risks, managing fisheries, and conducting naval operations.

By Sherkhon Azimov, Susana L\'opez-Moreno, Eric Dolores-Cuenca, JinYong Choi, Sangil Kim
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

Bridging short- and medium-range weather forecasting with machine learning

The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.

By Timothy A. Smith, Mariah Pope, Sergey Frolov, Brett Basarab, Daniel Abdi, Paul Madden, Isidora Jankov
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Origins and mitigation of double descent in reduced order modeling

arXiv:2607. 26414v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Latent low-dimensional structure in datasets of natural and engineered systems enables their sparse sensing, or full-state reconstruction from historical data and very few carefully chosen localized measurements.

By Andrei A. Klishin, J. Nathan Kutz, Krithika Manohar
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing

arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.

By Yixuan Jia, Siyi Chen, Yida Pan, Xiao Li, Lianghe Shi, Chanyong Jung, Haijie Yuan, Ismail Alkhouri, Yue Cynthia Wu, Saiprasad Ravishankar, Jeffrey A Fessler, Qing Qu