arXiv Machine Learning

Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS and Chronos-2 for Zero-Shot Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

RESCAST-100K: A Comprehensive Dataset for Cross-Domain Residential Load and Indoor Temperature Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 02852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term forecasting of residential energy load and indoor temperature is essential for home energy management systems, grid-level demand response, and community energy efficiency efforts.

By Jainam Dhruva, Yousaf Raza, A. B. Siddique, Simone Silvestri
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.

By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.

By Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova, Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Ruijun Ma, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitry Efimov
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 4

WeatherNext 3: Increasing resolution and performance of global weather models with raw observations

WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.

By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

Learning Continuous Regional Temperature Fields with Lead-Time and Resolution Queries

The paper introduces the Continuous Spatiotemporal Temperature Forecaster (CSTF), a neural field that predicts 2‑meter temperature (T2M) by treating forecast lead time and output resolution as explicit queries. CSTF encodes ERA5 history into latent states and decodes T2M as a coordinate‑based field, allowing flexible evaluation at any spatial location, lead time, or resolution. Experiments on a Southeast China benchmark show CSTF outperforms existing methods, achieving a 17.0 % bias reduction and demonstrating coherent predictions across varying lead times and resolutions.

By Chunlei Shi, Jiong Wang, Yi-Lin Wei, Junming Hou, Jinjin Liu, Yecheng Zhang, Dan Niu
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

A Benchmark for Electrical Load Forecasting Across Grid Levels: Time-Series Transformers Outperform Established Methods

arXiv:2607. 15705v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems.

By Matthias Hertel, Sebastian P\"utz, Jonathan Kolar, Benjamin Sch\"afer, Ralf Mikut, Veit Hagenmeyer
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting

arXiv:2609.24444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate, reliable, and deployable wind power forecasting is critical for power system dispatch, renewable energy integration, and electricity market o...

By Yuhan Zhu, Jilin Hu, Xinying Cai, Yingshan Li, Li Ma, Xiangfei Qiu Linsen Li, Kai Zhang, Yao Fu, Weihao Jiang, Bin Yang