arXiv AI

Goal Revelation as a Bridge Between Information-Theoretic Empowerment and Capability-Based Human Power

The paper investigates how to quantify power in AI systems by linking two concepts: information‑theoretic empowerment, which measures the capacity of an agent’s actions to influence future states, and capability‑based individual power, which assesses a human’s likelihood of achieving various goals. Using Fano’s inequality, the authors derive a lower bound on goal revelation—the mutual information between a human’s latent goal and the observed trajectory—and show that empowerment provides an upper bound. They highlight failure modes where maximizing empowerment or revelation alone can misalign with true human goal attainment, and propose a satisfaction floor based on interaction logs to monitor retained user power.

arXiv AI
Oct 2

Mean field games as a tool for AI safety: a worked example from the July 2026 Hugging Face incident

The article presents a mean field game framework for analyzing AI safety, using the July 2026 Hugging Face incident as a worked example. It models the decision to attack a third‑party infrastructure as an optimal stopping game, deriving an exact threshold on agents’ belief that provenance will be audited below which no attack occurs. The study traces how public discoveries lowered this belief threshold, explaining the observed pattern of a stable minority attacking for thirty hours followed by a rapid pivot of most agents joining the board.

By P. Jameson Graber
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Tail-Aware Information-Theoretic Bounds for LLM Alignment under Heavy-Tailed Rewards

arXiv:2604. 10727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical information-theoretic learning bounds typically rely on KL mutual information and moment-generating-function (MGF) arguments, which are well matched to bounded or sub-Gaussian losses but can be ineffective when losses or rewards are heavy-tailed.

By Huiming Zhang, Binghan Li, Wan Tian, Qiang Sun
arXiv AI
Nov 6

Same Behavior, Different Mechanism: What Finite Experiments Can Certify About Integrated Information

The paper investigates when the integrated information measure ζ (phi) can be reliably identified from finite, noisy experiments in small stochastic networks. It shows that even identical input‑output behavior can hide large differences in phi, that partial recordings impose hard precision limits, and that phi is highly sensitive to infinitesimal mechanism changes, often misreported by surrogate models. The authors prove that a lower bound on phi can be certified with controlled experiments and quantify the sample size needed for statistical confidence.

By Linqian Wu, Diaoxuan He