arXiv Machine Learning

Integrating RCTs, RWD, AI/ML and Statistics: Next-Generation Evidence Synthesis

arXiv:2511. 19735v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs)have been the cornerstone of clinical evidence; however, their cost, duration, and restrictive eligibility criteria limit power and external validity.

arXiv AI
Jun 30

An AI agent for treatment reasoning over a biomedical tool universe

arXiv:2606. 28692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Treatment reasoning underpins every therapeutic decision, integrating disease context, comorbidities, medications, contraindications, and evolving biomedical knowledge to select an appropriate therapy.

By Shanghua Gao, Ayush Noori, Richard Zhu, Curtis Ginder, Zhenglun Kong, Xiaorui Su, Justin Kauffman, Benjamin S. Glicksberg, Joshua Lampert, Ankit Sakhuja, Ashwin Sawant, ATHENA-R1 Evaluation Consortium, David A. Clifton, Noa Dagan, Ran Balicer, Marinka Zitnik
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 23

Automated Synthesis and Adversarial Validation of Executable Causal Research Pipelines

While automated research systems promise to accelerate empirical analysis, they are prone to silent failures: instances in which analysis code executes successfully yet relies on invalid causal assumptions. We present the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Epidemiology Research Assistant (ARA), a framework that makes these failures visible by explicitly encoding causal design principles, study-specific assumptions, and methodological constraints.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 23

Quantitative Evidence Mining for Plausibility-Aware Biomedical AI: A Narrative Review and Conceptual Framework

The article proposes a framework called quantitative evidence mining to transform biomedical findings into structured, context-rich evidence units. It outlines core elements such as claim, measured entity, value, comparator, population, conditions, temporal context, uncertainty, provenance, validation, and expert review. The authors present an eight-stage reference architecture and emphasize that plausibility should remain multidimensional rather than collapsed into a single truth label, linking extraction to evidence synthesis for applications like clinical trials, biomarker research, and knowledge-graph construction.

By Negin Sadat Babaiha, Stefan Geissler, Marie-Christine Simon, Martin Hofmann-Apitius, Marc Jacobs
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary
arXiv AI
Aug 20

CausalProfiler: Generating Synthetic Benchmarks for Rigorous and Transparent Evaluation of Causal Machine Learning

CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.

By Panayiotis Panayiotou, Audrey Poinsot, Alessandro Leite, Nicolas Chesneau, Marc Schoenauer, \"Ozg\"ur \c{S}im\c{s}ek
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

The Calibration Turn in AI-Assisted Research: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework for Evidence-Licensed Claims

arXiv:2606. 31273v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI-assisted research has entered a stage in which the central question is not only whether systems can generate hypotheses, run experiments, or produce manuscripts, but whether their scientific claims are calibrated to the evidence that supports them.

By Hongmin Li