Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions. Existing supervised methods depend largely on market-specific historical data, limiting their use in newly established or data-scarce markets.
arXiv:2608. 11359v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions.
arXiv:2609.23223v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more rele...
arXiv:2608. 01290v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Chronos have demonstrated strong forecasting capabilities across domains, yet adapting them to institutionally fragmented settings, where data cannot be centralized due to regulatory, competitive, or sovereignty constraints, remains unexplored.
The study evaluates nine foundation model variants against two leading electricity price forecasting benchmarks across Germany, Poland, and Spain for 2021‑2025. Only the TabPFN models consistently outperform the benchmarks in both point and probabilistic accuracy, yet their economic advantage varies with bidding strategy and risk tolerance. The results indicate that foundation models cannot universally replace market‑specific models; their usefulness depends on the chosen architecture and the particular decision problem.
arXiv:2405.07359v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecast...
arXiv:2510. 16898v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers.
arXiv:2606. 27032v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints.
arXiv:2607. 02623v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong zero-shot forecasting performance, but their generalization in covariate-driven, non-stationary settings is underexplored.
arXiv:2609.24559v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present $t_0$, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: $\texttt{t0-a...
The paper introduces PRICE, a systematic framework for adapting Large Language Models to short‑term Bitcoin price forecasting. PRICE combines parameter‑efficient fine‑tuning with LoRA, recursive multi‑step inference, integer‑rounded numerical representation, Context‑Task‑Format prompting, and exact zero‑temperature decoding, all built on a 4‑bit quantized LLaMA‑3 8B model. Ablation studies and comparative evaluations show that each component improves accuracy and reliability, enabling PRICE to achieve the lowest forecasting errors among eight transformer‑based and time‑series foundation models.
arXiv:2608. 05018v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) play a vital role in the electric power industry.
arXiv:2609.06656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load foreca...