arXiv AI

State Representation Matters in Deep Reinforcement Learning: Application to Energy Trading

arXiv:2606. 27032v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

CLaC@FinMMEval 2026 Task 3: Sentiment-Augmented Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Trading -- An Alpha-Reward Approach

arXiv:2607. 16028v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents our system for Task 3 of the CLEF 2026 FinMMEval Lab, which requires daily long, flat, or short trading decisions for Bitcoin (BTC) and Tesla (TSLA) using news and historical market data.

By Andrei Neagu, Eeham Khan, Leila Kosseim
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 5

Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

arXiv:2604. 26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data.

By My Thi Diem Phan, Trung Tuyen Truong, Hoai Phuong Ha, Dat Thanh Nguyen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Deep Learning for Cross-Border Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Study

The paper presents a comparative study of six deep learning models—state-space, MLP, RNN, and Transformer-based architectures—for cross-border electricity price forecasting using publicly available data. It focuses on generalization across markets and evaluates performance under low-data target-market conditions (zero-shot, one-shot, few-shot) with a standardized dataset for the Germany‑Luxembourg bidding zone in 2024. Results show that N‑HiTS and NBEATSx perform competitively in limited‑data scenarios, while transformer models achieve comparable accuracy but require more adaptation and tuning, and that careful feature selection and hyperparameter tuning improve performance.

By Hadeer Elashhab, Sai Srijan Papineni, Marvin Dorn, Veit Hagenmeyer, Benjamin Sch\"afer
arXiv AI
Jun 9

TT-DAC-PS: Twin-Target Deterministic Actor-Critic with Policy Smoothing for Optimal Trade Execution

arXiv:2606. 08379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study addresses the optimal execution of large stock sell programs by introducing TT-DAC-PS (Twin-Target Deterministic Actor-Critic with Policy Smoothing), a deterministic actor-critic architecture that combines twin exponential-moving-average critic targets with pessimistic min backup, TD3-style target policy smoothing noise, delayed actor updates, and conservative Q regularisation to curb overestimation.

By Ilia Zaznov, Atta Badii, Julian Kunkel, Alfonso Dufour
arXiv AI
Aug 19

MoFE: A Novel Mixture-of-Experts Framework with Fourier Neural Operators for Cryptocurrency Forecasting

MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.

By Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Climate-Dyna Deep Hedging for XVAs: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, Residual Climate HVA, and Hedge-Instrument Discovery

arXiv:2608. 01208v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For a trading desk, residual climate hedging valuation adjustment (HVA) is the climate cost left after its inherited hedge and any admissible overlay have been taken into account; it therefore cannot be inferred from a stand-alone stress loss.

By Xiaozhen Wang, Francois Buet-Golfouse