arXiv Statistics ML

Reliable conformal novelty detection at the decision boundary

arXiv:2601. 02610v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Novelty detection via conformal $p$-values and BH procedure provides distribution-free global false discovery rate (FDR) control.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Early Failure Prediction from Near-Anomaly Detection: A Proactive Approach

arXiv:2607. 26704v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Anomaly detection methods often have uncertain behavior with respect to samples near the distribution boundary, limiting their ability to anticipate future anomalies.

By L\'ea Billet (LAAS, INSA Toulouse, ANITI), Louise Trav\'e-Massuy\`es (LAAS-DISCO, Comue de Toulouse, ANITI), Elodie Chanthery (LAAS), Alexandre Gaffet
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 20

Online Conformal Anomaly Detection with Prediction-Powered Data Acquisition

Online Conformal Anomaly Detection with Prediction-Powered Data Acquisition introduces C-PP-COAD, a framework that uses synthetic calibration data to reduce reliance on real-world calibration while maintaining assumption-free false discovery rate control. The method wraps any anomaly detection algorithm, converting its scores into conformal p-values for online testing. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets—including thyroid dysfunction, O‑RAN conflict, 5G intrusion, and UE throughput degradation—show that C-PP-COAD preserves FDR guarantees while significantly cutting the need for real calibration data.

By Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo Simeone
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 28

Robust Conformalized Selection with Noisy Responses

arXiv:2607. 22985v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformalized selection has been widely applied to select high-quality candidates from large datasets with rigorous uncertainty quantification, such as reliable labeling, drug discovery, and the alignment of large language models.

By Chengyao Yu, Hongxin Wei, Bingyi Jing
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 9

A Quiet Failure in Calibrated Virtual Screening: Marginal Conformal Prediction Under-Covers the Minority Class, and a Class-Conditional Fix Recovers It

arXiv:2607. 06605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is being adopted in drug discovery to put an honest number on model reliability: pick an error rate alpha, and the method returns prediction sets containing the true label with probability at least 1 - alpha.

By Muhammadjon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States), Mustafojon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States)