arXiv Machine Learning

Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 07457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At commissioning time, Photovoltaic (PV) operators must forecast production before target-site observations are available, limiting the direct use of standard supervised forecasters.

arXiv AI

Jul 10

PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction

arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.

By Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu, Dunnan Liu, Long Cheng, Wei Wei

rag

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 4

An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 02088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts are needed for low-carbon energy systems, but newly deployed sites often have short, imperfect records.

By Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah, Stephanie Gauthier, Masood Nazari

safety

arXiv AI

Jul 21

FETS Benchmark: Foundation Models Enable Scalable and Generalizable Energy Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.

By Marco Obermeier, Marco Pruckner, Florian Haselbeck, Andreas Zeiselmair

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 21

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.

By Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova, Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Ruijun Ma, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitry Efimov

benchmarks

Hugging Face Trending Papers

Jul 14

Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 15

Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.

By Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng Chen

arXiv AI

Jun 9

Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 08630v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates.

By Jiahui Huang, Ao Luo, Lei Liu, Hongwei Zhao, Tengyuan Liu, Ruibo Guo, Bo Wang, Zhao Wang, Bin Li

rag

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.

By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai

llms benchmarks safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 3

Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

arXiv:2607. 01966v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation.

By Benedikt Kaas, Manuel Treutlein, Hannes Benedikt Gerber, Oliver Neumann, Cheewan Phatthanakhuha, Oliver Resch, Ralf Mikut, Veit Hagenmeyer

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 10

CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 10798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series.

By Yosuke Yamaguchi, Issei Suemitsu, Yuki Kajihara, Wenpeng Wei

llms benchmarks

Hugging Face Trending Papers

Jul 2

Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements.

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 7

Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependence

arXiv:2607. 02623v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong zero-shot forecasting performance, but their generalization in covariate-driven, non-stationary settings is underexplored.

By Zhenghua Pan, Ahmed Aziz Ezzat

benchmarks

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