arXiv:2608. 08064v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning fine-grained spatial patterns from coarse-resolution data is challenging, especially in causal settings where high-resolution effects must be inferred from aggregated interventions and outcomes.
arXiv:2510. 08762v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate standard no-interference assumptions.
arXiv:2607. 14940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings.
arXiv:2608. 01352v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from real-world spatiotemporal data is challenging due to hidden confounders and interference.
The paper introduces a mixture‑learning framework for causal inference with unobserved confounding, treating latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that create mixture structures in observed data. By assuming suitable structural and identifiability conditions, it shows that recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms allows estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. The authors illustrate the approach with Bernoulli mixture examples, extend it to high‑dimensional exponential‑family mixtures with dependent outcomes, and relate it to panel‑data settings, latent factor models, and synthetic interventions.
arXiv:2609.40051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from observational data is central to science and policy, but the effects are not identified when confounders are unmeasured....
arXiv:2606. 17010v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) identification is crucial to explain the impact of an intervention and optimize our policies accordingly.
arXiv:2606. 07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification.
The paper introduces Multi-Task Anti-Causal learning (MTAC), a framework that estimates latent causes from observed effects by exploiting both task-invariant and task-specific structural dependencies. MTAC constructs a structural equation model that separates a shared backbone mechanism from task-specific deviations, then uses maximum a posteriori inference to reconstruct causes. Applied to urban event reconstruction—parking violations, abandoned properties, and unsanitary conditions—MTAC outperforms strong baselines on real data from Manhattan and Newark, achieving up to a 33.04% reduction in mean absolute error.
The paper introduces causal foundation models that can bound the effects of interventions and counterfactuals using only observational data. It defines a canonical prior with full support over structural causal models with discrete observables, enabling the translation of counterfactual bounding into learning distributions over functions that map data and structural assumptions to causal queries. This approach extends causal foundational modelling to partially-identifiable causal effects, where unobserved confounding leads to multiple compatible values for the effect.
arXiv:2609.36046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across...
Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics.
arXiv:2605. 15133v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines.