arXiv:2609.40051v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Estimating causal effects from observational data is central to science and policy, but the effects are not identified when confounders are unmeasured....
By Yonghan Jung
CIDER-FM is a causal foundation model that combines finite observational data with surrogate-interventional datasets to predict target conditional interventional distributions more accurately than using observational data alone. It employs an intervention-aware representation and hierarchical three‑axis attention to integrate information across variables, samples, and experimental regimes. Experiments on synthetic graphs, simulated data, and real‑world Causal Chambers data show that incorporating experimental context improves CID prediction performance.
By Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo, Anish Dhir, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf, Adrian Weller
arXiv:2607. 14940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings.
By Phevos Paschalidis, Constantinos Daskalakis, Devavrat Shah
arXiv:2608. 08064v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning fine-grained spatial patterns from coarse-resolution data is challenging, especially in causal settings where high-resolution effects must be inferred from aggregated interventions and outcomes.
By Gerrit Gro{\ss}mann, Sumantrak Mukherjee, Sebastian J. Vollmer
arXiv:2608. 01352v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from real-world spatiotemporal data is challenging due to hidden confounders and interference.
By Omar Faruque, Pavan Raj Ravi, Jianwu Wang
The paper introduces a mixture‑learning framework for causal inference with unobserved confounding, treating latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that create mixture structures in observed data. By assuming suitable structural and identifiability conditions, it shows that recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms allows estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. The authors illustrate the approach with Bernoulli mixture examples, extend it to high‑dimensional exponential‑family mixtures with dependent outcomes, and relate it to panel‑data settings, latent factor models, and synthetic interventions.
By Mansi Sood, Devavrat Shah