arXiv:2606. 02657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The standard generalization bounds assume that the training and deployment distributions are the same, or are static, and don't consider regime switching environments where the ratio of calm vs crisis states is different.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2608. 01599v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Volatility forecasts are commonly evaluated with aggregate accuracy metrics such as RMSE and MAE, but these metrics can hide conditional failures that matter for risk management.
arXiv:2606. 04164v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data samples used for training often differ from those encountered during fine-tuning and deployment, and while ML models show promise, their performance remains limited when only small annotated datasets are available.
arXiv:2605. 30363v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Regime shifts in financial markets reorganise the joint dynamics of asset prices and macro variables, breaking any single-regime calibration.
arXiv:2606. 07575v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Regulatory stress testing frameworks, including the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP), require robust Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) estimation under forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios.
arXiv:2608. 12251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training.
arXiv:2607. 09232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time.
arXiv:2606. 27688v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In financial forecasting, predictive performance depends not only on which model is trained, but also on how the trained model is deployed.
arXiv:2606. 18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes.
arXiv:2607. 02864v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful approach in financial trading, enabling agents to learn optimal strategies through direct market interaction.
arXiv:2607. 18899v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting under real-world conditions is inherently non-stationary, as the conditional distribution of future observations evolves over time.
arXiv:2607. 05452v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasters that use exogenous covariates are fragile in deployment: when those covariates are noised, temporally misaligned, or missing, strong exogenous-fusion and exogenous-adapted models can degrade far above the endogenous-only floor.