Deep neural networks are often overconfident, assigning high confidence even to incorrect predictions. Consequently, users lack a reliable signal for deciding when a prediction can be trusted.
arXiv:2608. 20326v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep neural networks are often overconfident, assigning high confidence even to incorrect predictions.
arXiv:2608. 09768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken.
arXiv:2610.27443v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Set-valued classification (SVC) offers a practical approach to communicating uncertainty while maintaining accuracy by predicting variable-sized sets p...
The main challenge in applying deep neural networks to real-world scenarios lies in distributional discrepancies between training and test datasets, often caused by variations in data acquisition cond...
arXiv:2606. 28654v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep Neural Network (DNN) classifiers suffer from poor calibration when their softmax outputs (predictive confidence) deviate from the empirical likelihoods.
The paper introduces DUA-D2C, a Dynamic Uncertainty-Aware Divide2Conquer method that improves overfitting remediation in deep learning. It refines the traditional Divide2Conquer approach by dynamically weighting subset models based on a composite score of accuracy and normalized prediction entropy, allowing the central model to learn more from generalizable and confident edge models. The authors provide theoretical justification, show reduced model variance, and demonstrate significant generalization gains across image, audio, and text benchmarks, even when combined with standard regularizers like Dropout.
arXiv:2506. 01486v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data imbalance persists as a pervasive challenge in regression tasks, introducing bias in model performance and undermining predictive reliability.
arXiv:2609.24303v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training often improves task performance but can degrade confidence calibration, leaving post-trained language models (PoLMs) more overconfident t...
The paper introduces pseudo‑ensembles for music audio‑language models to enable abstention when the model is uncertain. By perturbing inputs—such as shuffling answer order, corrupting audio, or swapping option labels—multiple predictive distributions are generated from a single pretrained model, allowing the use of ensemble‑based uncertainty metrics like entropy, expected entropy, and mutual information. Experiments on TinyMU with MuChoMusic show that averaging over four answer orderings improves accuracy from 55.7% to 59.2% and reduces the error‑retention curve area from 0.293 to 0.261, all with only a few extra forward passes and no retraining.
arXiv:2607. 20046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: With the widespread deployment of deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety-critical domains, reducing the cost of model validation under limited testing budgets has become increasingly important.
arXiv:2509.24988v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remain...
The paper introduces the Fragility Index (FI), a new performance metric that measures the tail risk of confident misclassifications in classification models. FI is framed within a robust satisficing framework to assess classifier sensitivity under distributional uncertainty, and the authors develop a surrogate-based training method with provable bounds linking training fragility to ranking-error FI. The approach is extended to common loss functions and includes an FI-based regularizer for deep neural networks, with empirical studies on medical diagnosis tasks showing that FI reveals risk not captured by accuracy or AUC and leads to models with lower operational costs in a human–AI diagnostic workflow.