Hugging Face Trending Papers

Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS for Zero-Shot Probabilistic Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks

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District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Conventional forecasting workflows train system-specific models on historical data, which can become burdensome when networks change through new consumers, retrofits, or changing operating regimes.

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arXiv AI
Oct 12

Machine Learning and Time-Series Foundation Models for Day-Ahead Electricity Forecasting in a University Building

The study benchmarks various forecasting models—including statistical, machine‑learning, recurrent neural networks, and pretrained TimesFM—for day‑ahead electricity demand in a university building. TimesFM 3.0 with weather covariates achieves the lowest overall mean absolute error, outperforming a weekly seasonal‑naive baseline by about 43%, while XGBoost remains competitive and requires only local fitting. The LSTM model takes longer to train without improving accuracy, and TimesFM’s performance is robust even without covariates, though covariates slightly improve holiday forecasts.

By Amey Vasulkar, Samuel Kernan Freire, Arie-Willem de Leeuw, Tadeo-Baldiri Salcedo-Rahola