arXiv Machine Learning

PrecipJEPA: JEPA-Regularized Future-State Prediction with Motion-Source Rendering for Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

IRENE: A Convolutional GRU Ensemble Model for Radar Precipitation Nowcasting over Italy

IRENE is a deep learning model that provides probabilistic short‑range precipitation nowcasts over Italy at 1 km spatial and 5‑minute temporal resolution. It uses an encoder–forecaster architecture built on multi‑scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs) and is trained on national radar composites, with an importance‑sampling scheme and the almost‑fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score as its primary loss. Three training variants—standard, adversarial (IRENE‑GAN), and spectrally constrained (IRENE‑GAN‑RAPSD)—outperform benchmark methods STEPS and DGMR in probabilistic skill, though the advantage in mean absolute error is limited to the first 90 minutes.

By Alessandro Camilletti, Gabriele Franch, Elena Tomasi, Marco Cristoforetti
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland

arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.

By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
arXiv AI
Jun 18

A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.

By David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill, Chris D. Thorncroft
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

WeatherDiagFlow: Evidence-Grounded Radar Nowcasting with Diagnostic Flow Refinement

WeatherDiagFlow is a new radar nowcasting system that frames forecasting as an evidence‑grounded task, producing both future radar fields and structured diagnostic evidence. It predicts motion, growth, decay, heavy‑echo risk, and uncertainty to refine flow, while a frozen‑scaffold residual calibration preserves strong‑echo events over longer leads. A multi‑agent layer transforms this evidence into operational bulletins and separate verification audits, achieving competitive performance and improved strong‑echo skill on the FJRADAR dataset.

By Chunlei Shi, Yufeng Zhu, Yixiao Liang, Dan Niu, Yongchao Feng, Qiliang Wu, Jiong Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 2

GenONet: A Generative operator Network for High-Resolution Precipitation Nowcasting

GenONet introduces a Spatio-Temporal U-DeepONet architecture that serves as a generator in a GAN framework for high‑resolution precipitation nowcasting up to three hours ahead. By learning continuous‑time precipitation dynamics with a Deep Operator Network and enforcing physics through a moisture‑conservation loss, the model produces sharp, physically consistent forecasts that outperform baselines, especially for high‑intensity events and longer lead times. Ablation studies confirm the added value of the physics‑informed regularizer and the synergy of operator learning with adversarial training.

By Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohammad Khanjani
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 8

CF-JEPA: Mask-free forward prediction with asymmetric encoder utilization for time-series representation learning

arXiv:2606. 07031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-supervised learning (SSL) for time-series representation learning is dominated by two paradigms: contrastive methods, which face challenges in constructing positive or negative pairs, and masking-based methods, which disrupt the temporal continuity of time-series signals.

By Jaehoon Lee, Sunghyun Sim