arXiv Machine Learning

Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv:2606. 18436v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sparse point observations are increasingly available for precipitation nowcasting, but it is unclear how much they improve dense radar-field forecasts.

arXiv AI
1d ago

High-Resolution Probabilistic Data-Driven Weather Modeling with a Stretched-Grid

arXiv:2511. 23043v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model providing ensembles of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary ensemble size and forecast length.

By Even Marius Nordhagen, H{\aa}vard Homleid Haugen, Magnus Sikora Ingstad, Aram Farhad Shafiq Salihi, Thomas Nils Nipen, Ivar Ambj{\o}rn Seierstad, Inger-Lise Frogner, Mariana Clare, Simon Lang, Matthew Chantry, Peter Dueben, J{\o}rn Kristiansen
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland

arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.

By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
arXiv Machine Learning
6d ago

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

arXiv:2608. 12271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties.

By Pedro Sousa (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Will Tebbutt (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge), Sadiq Jaffer (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Robin Young (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Anil Madhavapeddy (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Richard E. Turner (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)
arXiv AI
Jul 3

Spatial Support Matters: Geometry-Aware Graph Fusion for Rainfall Field Reconstruction

arXiv:2607. 01621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fine-scale rainfall reconstruction is critical for urban flood modeling, but real rainfall sensing systems observe the field through incompatible spatial supports: gauges measure points, microwave links measure paths, and radar/satellite products measure gridded areas.

By Low Jun Yu, Niramay Kachhadiya, Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath, Sanka Rasnayaka, Lucy Amanda Marshall
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 6

AIFS-SUBS: Extending Data-Driven Forecasting to Sub-Seasonal Timescales

Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.