arXiv:2609.37038v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting demands accurate short-term forecasts under strong spatiotemporal variability. Diffusion models are well suited to modeling...
By Haoran Xu, Xingzhuo Guo, Yuchen Zhang, Jincheng Zhong, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long
The paper introduces a new diffusion-based approach for probabilistic weather forecasting that incorporates auxiliary conditional denoising tasks. By predicting future states from both clean and corrupted contexts, the model reduces ambiguity and learns conditional distributions across noise levels using a proper scoring rule. Experiments demonstrate improved one‑step forecasting, especially at longer horizons, and better calibration in high‑dimensional global weather scenarios.
By Joonhyeong Park, Giung Nam, Hyungi Lee, Kyunghyun Cho, Byoungwoo Park, Juho Lee
arXiv:2608.30205v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Localized extreme precipitation is a major trigger of urban flash floods and landslides, yet producing nowcasts that combine fine spatial detail with p...
By Dohyun Park, Changhoon Song, Tengyuan Chang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Youngjoon Hong
The paper introduces a plug‑and‑play framework called Dynamics‑Precipitation Decoupling that employs a diffusion generator to convert non‑precipitation forecasts from a frozen weather model into observation‑aligned daily precipitation. The generator is conditioned on atmospheric states and satellite‑gauge precipitation estimates, using a multi‑scale recurrent encoder and cross‑attention to capture heterogeneous rainfall distributions and align daily accumulations with evolving atmospheric signals. Experiments on global and regional datasets, including a heavy‑rainfall case study in China, show that the method improves daily precipitation accuracy, event detection, and localized accumulation patterns compared to several baseline weather models and ensemble forecasts.
By Guowen Li, Yang Liu, Mengxuan Chen, Jiashun Cheng, Haoyuan Liang, Shilei Cao, Yujie Wang, Juepeng Zheng, Fang Wang, Yerong Feng, Meng Jin, Hong Cheng, Yutong Lu, Haohuan Fu
The study compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) dynamical model with an unpaired diffusion-based generative model for downscaling extreme precipitation events up to three weeks ahead. Both models outperform raw European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts when evaluated against Swiss rain gauge-radar observations, but their strengths differ by atmospheric regime: WRF excels in a multicell, non‑stationary event, while the diffusion model performs more consistently and better in a stationary supercell event.
By Mauricio Lima, Marika Koukoula, Romain Pilon, Monika Feldmann, Erwan Koch, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tom Beucler
arXiv:2606. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting is increasingly being approached with deep learning models that learn directly from recent radar observations.
By Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak Mehrkanoon