arXiv:2606. 20538v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization.
arXiv:2601. 07944v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems.
arXiv:2607. 27023v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive.
arXiv:2608. 09348v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Density estimation underlies many unsupervised tasks on tabular data such as anomaly detection, out-of-distribution detection, and data augmentation.
arXiv:2608.21729v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) serves as a vital framework for parameter inference in scientific fields where simulators involve intractable likeliho...
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2606. 05365v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider multi-environment prediction problems.
D-TAIA is a framework that adapts large language models for multi‑task predictive process monitoring, jointly predicting the next activity and remaining time of ongoing cases. It uses domain‑aware triplet loss pre‑training, FAISS‑based nearest‑neighbor retrieval for time estimation, and a TAIA inference strategy to preserve sequential reasoning while fine‑tuning a 10 M‑parameter backbone. Across four real‑world event logs, D‑TAIA achieves state‑of‑the‑art or competitive results compared to a fine‑tuned LLM and a recurrent neural network baseline, with ablation studies showing the effectiveness of NLP and computer‑vision techniques for this domain.
arXiv:2606. 09856v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Post-training Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning typically focuses on deductive tasks such as mathematics and coding where correctness is verifiable.
arXiv:2510. 01163v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The factors driving the performance of in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs) remain poorly understood despite ICL's surprising effectiveness, enabling models to adapt to new tasks from only a handful of examples.
The paper introduces SIMPLE, a prior‑fitted multi‑view in‑context learner that learns a reusable, task‑conditioned inference procedure instead of a fixed fusion function. By generating synthetic task priors in embedding space, SIMPLE can handle diverse view configurations, class structures, and missingness patterns. Experiments on multi‑view and multi‑omics benchmarks show that a frozen SIMPLE model performs competitively, and lightweight adapter calibration further improves performance across most datasets.
arXiv:2602. 18955v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Neural Processes (NPs), and specifically Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), have demonstrated remarkable performance across tasks ranging from spatiotemporal forecasting to tabular data modelling.