Strategic Doctrine Language Models (sdLM) are a learning‑system framework that integrates multi‑document attention, temporal encoding, and a doctrine‑consistency layer to enable multi‑document strategic reasoning with doctrinal consistency constraints and calibrated uncertainty. The authors evaluate sdLM on expert‑panel scoring of 47 strategic scenarios, doctrine consistency across 336 doctrine publications (12,847 statements), and geopolitical forecasting on 127 historical counterfactuals spanning 1945‑2020 over 12‑60 month horizons, showing higher strategic quality and better calibration than strong general‑purpose LLM baselines and competitiveness with human experts on long‑horizon judgments. Ablation studies, scaling trends, and deployment‑oriented performance/latency characteristics are reported to identify which components drive improvements and how they translate to operational settings.
arXiv:2609.15022v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Defense is a knowledge-intensive domain that requires precise understanding of specialized terminology, doctrinal concepts, operational procedures, and...
arXiv:2606. 30441v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A rigorous formalization of system requirements is a fundamental prerequisite for the verification of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS).
Document-level relation extraction (DocRE) aims to extract relations among multiple entities across extended contexts while maintaining consistency across predicted triples. Although large language models (LLMs) show remarkable reasoning capabilities in information extraction, their predictions are typically generated independently for each candidate triple and may violate fundamental relational constraints such as transitivity, symmetry, and functional uniqueness, leading to contradictory and unreliable outputs.
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2608. 20116v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in settings where textual summaries, numerical observations, and external tool outputs may provide conflicting evidence.
arXiv:2608.23058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) now support forecasting systems that combine language-based reasoning with temporal data, evidence retrieval, external too...
arXiv:2508. 09904v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Real-world forecasting requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information provided in textual form.
arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
arXiv:2609.13980v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Arabic large-language-model (LLM) evaluation has matured around Modern Standard Arabic (MSA): aggregated leaderboards such as the Open Arabic LLM Lea...
arXiv:2608. 03031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features.
arXiv:2607. 20441v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Every information ecosystem produces beliefs that shape strategic decisions.
arXiv:2606. 15917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.