The paper introduces C$^{3}$T, a Counterfactual Causal Conversation Transformer that models sentiment shifts in social‑media conversation trees by treating discourse moves such as denial, evidence, and toxicity as interventions. It adds a causal sentiment reasoning layer, CaSiRe, to public rumor datasets, providing sentiment, shift, intervention, and causal‑source annotations. Experiments show that C$^{3}$T outperforms text‑only, graph‑based, and temporal baselines in predicting sentiment and attribution, revealing that denials and evidence reduce negativity while toxicity increases it.
arXiv:2404.06349v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual r...
By Yu Zhou, Xingyu Wu, Jibin Wu, Liang Feng, Kay Chen Tan
The paper introduces C$^{3}$T, a Counterfactual Causal Conversation Transformer that models sentiment shifts in social‑media conversation trees. It treats discourse moves such as denial, evidence, and toxicity as interventions, predicts node sentiment and shifts, and attributes sentiment changes to specific ancestor messages. The authors also present CaSiRe, a causal sentiment reasoning layer that enriches rumor conversation datasets with sentiment, shift, intervention, and causal‑source annotations, and demonstrate that C$^{3}$T outperforms baseline models in robustness and interpretability.
By S M Rafiuddin, Atriya Sen
arXiv:2607. 15281v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal and intervention-based question answering is fundamental to advancing large language models (LLMs) toward reasoning beyond surface-level correlations and understanding underlying causal mechanisms.
By Su Lan, Xuefei Yin, Yanming Zhu, Alan Wee-Chung Liew
arXiv:2606. 10607v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from observational data, which is crucial for real-world decision-making.
By Xinyu Li, Yuanyuan Wang, Haoxuan Li, Chuan Zhou, Erdun Gao, Bo Han, Tongliang Liu, Kun Zhang, Howard Bondell, Mingming Gong
arXiv:2602. 14972v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions.
By Arik Reuter, Anish Dhir, Cristiana Diaconu, Jake Robertson, Ole Ossen, Frank Hutter, Adrian Weller, Mark van der Wilk, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf
arXiv:2602. 16481v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery seeks to uncover causal relations from data, typically represented as causal graphs, and is essential for predicting the effects of interventions.
By Zihao Li, Fabrizio Russo
arXiv:2603. 24304v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) deliver strong performance on graph tasks, but their accuracy drops significantly under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios.
By Bowen Lu, Liangqiang Yang, Teng Li, Kun Zhang
arXiv:2606. 07525v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal graphs in text are typically populated by observable, predefined events.
By Liesbeth Allein, Marie-Francine Moens
arXiv:2607. 14416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The interconnected nature of global financial systems makes them vulnerable to systemic risks, where the failure of a few institutions can trigger catastrophic cascading defaults.
By Rabimba Karanjai, Hemanth Madhavarao, Lei Xu, Weidong Shi
arXiv:2606. 03602v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the fundamental limitations of purely statistical methods, such as statistical distinguishability within equivalence classes and sensitivity to finite sample sizes.
By Bo Peng, Kaiwen Wu, Sirui Chen, Zhiheng Wang, Yu Qiao, Chaochao Lu
arXiv:2602. 20094v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations.
By Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li