arXiv Machine Learning
CausalBN-Bench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Causal Learning Capability of LLMs
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arXiv AI
Jun 29
CausalFlip: A Benchmark for LLM Causal Judgment Beyond Semantic Matching
arXiv:2602. 20094v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations.
arXiv AI
Aug 6
Can Post-Training Transform LLMs into Causal Reasoners?
arXiv:2602. 06337v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference is essential for decision-making but remains challenging for non-experts.
arXiv AI
Aug 26
From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers
The study evaluates 12 instruction‑tuned open‑weight LLMs on six causal‑graph benchmarks, testing five prompting strategies and four confidence sources. Findings show that LLMs tend to over‑predict edges, misclassify indirect or reversed edges as direct, and exhibit high over‑confidence, while conventional confidence estimates are unreliable and agreement signals offer limited improvement. The results suggest LLMs should be used as externally validated soft causal priors rather than definitive causal‑structure evidence.
arXiv AI
Aug 11
TempoBench: Reasoning Execution Without Causal Attribution Is Just Simulation
arXiv:2510. 27544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current training paradigms, optimized for long-horizon reasoning trace execution, have made Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at pattern matching and forward simulation of reasoning, but underperform at counterfactual causal understanding and reasoning.
arXiv AI
Jul 20
Causal-Audit: Explicit and Auditable Graph-based Reasoning via Target-Aware Causal Chain Construction
arXiv:2607. 15281v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal and intervention-based question answering is fundamental to advancing large language models (LLMs) toward reasoning beyond surface-level correlations and understanding underlying causal mechanisms.
arXiv AI
Jun 9
Implicit Causal Graph Construction in Text via Chain Discovery
arXiv:2606. 07525v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal graphs in text are typically populated by observable, predefined events.