arXiv:2606. 25745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance.
Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior.
arXiv:2410. 14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification.
arXiv:2606. 25882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: DGPs are probabilistic models with remarkable prediction performance that concatenate GPs across several layers.
arXiv:2607. 25376v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), variational inference is a widely adopted framework for modeling uncertainty in a distributional way, with the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serving as the standard objective function.
arXiv:2607. 18422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Overparameterized models often have continuous parameter symmetries, so different parameters define the same predictor.
arXiv:2602. 19126v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets.
arXiv:2607. 22961v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Verbalized Machine Learning (VML) parameterizes a model as a natural-language prompt that an LLM evaluates as f(x; theta).
arXiv:2606. 07841v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a methodology for posterior approximation that relies on stochastic optimization.
arXiv:2606. 01954v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Implicit-process priors define distributions over functions through flexible generative mechanisms, making them attractive for Bayesian function-space modelling.
arXiv:2606. 07561v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Gaussian processes with stationary kernels on bounded domains exhibit inflated posterior variance near the boundary.
arXiv:2602. 04596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayes-filtered transformers are transformers meta-learned on sequences from a prior predictive distribution to approximate the corresponding posterior predictive distribution.
arXiv:2309. 15769v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in deep learning have highlighted the phenomenon of benign overfitting in overparameterized statistical models, sparking significant interest in understanding its foundations.