arXiv Machine Learning

Beyond Homoscedasticity: Decoupled Uncertainty Optimization for Deep Imbalanced Regression

The paper introduces DUO, a framework for Deep Imbalanced Regression that models each prediction as a conditional Gaussian to capture instance‑level uncertainty. By decoupling mean and variance optimization, DUO enhances learning signals for tail samples and mitigates gradient coupling that hampers hard examples. A distribution‑guided contrastive learning component further refines feature representations, leading to state‑of‑the‑art performance on several visual and biological regression benchmarks.

arXiv Statistics ML
5d ago

Two-sample comparison through additive tree models for density ratios

The paper introduces additive tree models for estimating the density ratio between two distributions, using a novel balancing loss that enables training with supervised learning algorithms such as forward‑stagewise optimization and gradient boosting. The loss also functions as a pseudo‑likelihood, allowing generalized Bayesian inference via backfitting samplers for Bayesian additive regression trees, which provides uncertainty quantification. Experiments show that the boosting algorithms achieve high accuracy with low computational cost, and the Bayesian approach offers competitive accuracy while delivering uncertainty estimates, demonstrated on microbiome compositional data.

By Naoki Awaya, Yuliang Xu, Li Ma
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Prediction-Powered Conditional Inference

arXiv:2603.05575v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a blac...

By Yang Sui, Jin Zhou, Hua Zhou, Xiaowu Dai
arXiv AI
Sep 10

DUA-D2C: Dynamic Uncertainty Aware Method for Overfitting Remediation in Deep Learning

The paper introduces DUA-D2C, a Dynamic Uncertainty-Aware Divide2Conquer method that improves overfitting remediation in deep learning. It refines the traditional Divide2Conquer approach by dynamically weighting subset models based on a composite score of accuracy and normalized prediction entropy, allowing the central model to learn more from generalizable and confident edge models. The authors provide theoretical justification, show reduced model variance, and demonstrate significant generalization gains across image, audio, and text benchmarks, even when combined with standard regularizers like Dropout.

By Md. Saiful Bari Siddiqui, Md Mohaiminul Islam, Md. Golam Rabiul Alam