arXiv:2604. 06464v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds.
By Xiayin Lou, Peng Luo
arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.
By Leon Chlon, Fatima Sheaib, Zein Khamis, Maggie Chlon, Mahdi El Zein, MarcAntonio M. Awada
arXiv:2608. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data.
By Nguyen Thai Anh, Truong Viet Vu, Tran Thien Thanh, Vo Nguyen Quoc Bao, Ngo Hoang Tu
arXiv:2607. 18804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the \emph{latent posterior model} of transformer behavior, the next-token distribution arises from a posterior over latent predictive models conditioned on the context, mixed to generate continuations.
By Garrett Baker, Vinayak Pathak, Daniel Murfet, Susan Wei
arXiv:2606. 05381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose an extended family of structured spatial priors that incorporates the total variation (TV) function with $\ell_p$ norms.
By Disi Lin, Martin Berggren, Tommy L\"ofstedt
arXiv:2606. 25745v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance.
By James Odgers, Ben Riegler, Siddharth Swaroop, Vincent Fortuin