The article introduces rc_prediction, a Python package that implements parameter‑aware reservoir computing (PARC) for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems when governing equations are unknown. PARC trains a reservoir computer on time‑series data collected at multiple parameter values, then uses the trained model in closed‑loop to generate trajectories at unseen parameter settings, enabling parameter scans and autonomous prediction. The package offers hyperparameter optimization, optional GPU acceleration via PyTorch, and demonstrates its use on three benchmark systems, including predicting critical transitions and system collapse from pre‑critical data.
By Jin-Cheng Rao, Zheng-Meng Zhai, Ying-Cheng Lai
arXiv:2608. 01502v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential subset search -- forward selection with floating backtracking and its descendants -- remains the quality reference in feature selection, but every member of the family sweeps the full pool of remaining candidate features at each step, which excludes it from very-high-dimensional problems; there, only individual-feature ranking remains practical, and it models feature interplay weakly or not at all.
By Petr Somol, Ji\v{r}\'{\i} Grim
EvoBench is a diagnostic benchmark framework designed to reveal where and when machine‑learning models for environmental variables fail, rather than relying on a single average accuracy score. It tracks model performance over time and across spatial extrapolation, highlighting issues such as non‑stationarity, poor performance at unmonitored sites, and under‑prediction of rare events like floods. In a case study on daily streamflow prediction across 9,000 U.S. basins, EvoBench shows that no model dominates all scenarios and that targeted fixes can mitigate identified weaknesses.
By Yiming Sun, Yuan Zhang, Qi Cheng, Yingda Fan, Runlong Yu, Yiqun Xie, Xiaowei Jia
The study introduces RegimeShift‑Surrogates, a streaming benchmark that tests surrogate models across eight tasks and multiple regimes. It compares revalidation—choosing the model with lowest current‑window validation loss—to stateful adaptive controllers and finds that revalidation consistently outperforms stateful methods, achieving lower mean log regret in most task‑scenario combinations. The results suggest that fresh validation evidence is more valuable than carrying over past evidence when dealing with distribution shifts.
By Harshil Lodhiya
arXiv:2610. 12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth.
By Mohamed Readh Fentazi, Mazene Ameur, Adlen Ksentini
The paper introduces a dynamic multi‑step decoding approach for time‑series foundation models, arguing that the best decoding strategy varies by instance rather than being fixed. A lightweight selector network ranks candidate rollout schedules using the backbone’s hidden states, trained on historical windows and evaluated via dynamic programming to keep complexity quadratic. At deployment, multiple selectors vote to choose a schedule, defaulting to one‑shot decoding when they disagree, and the method shows statistically significant improvements in point‑forecast accuracy on the fev‑bench benchmark with frozen Chronos‑2 and Moirai‑1.1‑R‑small backbones.
By Birmjune Kim, Hyungju Lee, Hyun Oh Song
HyperMC is a multi‑fidelity hyperparameter tuning framework for stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) that combines Hyperband-style resource allocation with kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) evaluation. It uses successive‑halving brackets to explore a continuous hyperparameter space while progressively refining promising configurations within a fixed computational budget. Robust HyperMC further introduces global grid initialization and elite‑guided local refinement to reduce sensitivity to random candidate generation and noisy evaluations, and theoretical analysis shows that the successive‑halving component selects a near‑optimal configuration with high probability under suitable conditions.
By Ming Tan, Xiyun Jiao
arXiv:2509. 24122v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: At the heart of time-series forecasting (TSF) lies a fundamental challenge: how can models efficiently and effectively capture long-range temporal dependencies across ever-growing sequences?
By Hongbo Liu, Jia Xu
arXiv:2610.02248v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Operational land surface forecasting systems built on Mamba-family Structured State Space Models absorb non-stationary confounding events (unrecorded i...
By Anidipta Pal
arXiv:2608. 01740v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training-free feature forecasting accelerates diffusion sampling by predicting features at skipped denoising steps.
By Yanchao Li, Jiaqing Xie, Ben Gao, Wanhao Liu, Yanbo Wang, T. Y. Tsui, Jinfei Liu, Yuqiang Li, Tianfan Fu
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
By Minjong Cheon
Decision‑FLIP is a budget‑free pruning framework for Gaussian occupancy models that scores each persistent Gaussian row by how many voxel decisions change when the row is removed. It uses a guarded Otsu split on the log‑score distribution to select survivors without a target, then compiles the survivors into a smaller checkpoint, reducing bank size and latency. Across multiple model‑dataset settings, the method removes 12–79% of rows, cuts latency by 7–45%, and saves up to 8.0% of whole‑model compute while keeping semantic mIoU within 0.18 points of the original.
By Jingxing Li, Anurag Paul, Subhasis Das, Cindy Xu