Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability.
arXiv:2606. 27863v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Demand forecasting at the bottom of a retail hierarchy requires predicting tens of thousands of correlated long-horizon series across products, stores, and regions.
By Janak M. Patel, Anirudh Deodhar, Dagnachew Birru
arXiv:2606. 08896v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially.
By Qianyang Li, Xingjun Zhang, Shaoxun Wang, Tao Peng, Jia Wei
The paper introduces Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that assigns weights to forecasting models using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. GGEW extends basic weighting through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation, yielding variants such as Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. The authors evaluate GGEW on M4 competition submissions and real-world datasets (Monash Traffic, Electricity, Solar), finding that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is competitive across various settings, though performance varies by dataset, horizon, and deployment protocol.
By Prasen R. Nuthanakaluva, Nava K. Gaddam
The paper introduces an adaptive Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework for time series forecasting that incorporates expert-specific losses to give each expert a direct learning signal independent of gating weights. The overall objective combines base forecasting loss with these expert losses, encouraging experts to specialize on different temporal segments. A partial online learning strategy is added for efficient incremental updates, and experiments on economic, tourism, and energy datasets show the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art neural models and foundation models, with ablation studies confirming the benefit of expert loss integration.
By Btissame El Mahtout, Florian Ziel
arXiv:2505. 13102v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Unlike conventional "black-box" transformers with classical self-attention mechanism, we build a lightweight and interpretable transformer-like neural net by unrolling a mixed-graph-based optimization algorithm to forecast traffic with spatial and temporal dimensions.
By Ji Qi, Tam Thuc Do, Mingxiao Liu, Zhuoshi Pan, Yuzhe Li, Gene Cheung, H. Vicky Zhao
arXiv:2606. 02497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation.
By Yuhua Liao, Zetian Wang, Qiangqiang Nie, Zhenhua Zhang
MACTS-EM is a new multi‑agent framework for time series forecasting that combines domain‑specialised agents, a meta‑cognitive allocation layer, emergent memory for cross‑domain transfer, multimodal context integration, and adversarial robustness. The authors evaluate the system on financial, climate, energy, and pandemic data, reporting 8‑12% higher accuracy, 22‑27% better zero‑shot transfer, 16‑21% greater resilience to regime shifts, and 15‑18% faster recovery from distribution changes compared to existing methods. These results suggest that collaborative, agent‑based approaches can outperform traditional architectures in complex, real‑world forecasting tasks.
By Ahmad Shahi, Mamehgol Yousefi
arXiv:2606. 19821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Key Performance Measurement (KPM) forecasting is essential for proactive network management of 5G and next-generation telecom networks.
By Geon Kim, Dara Ron, Sukhdeep Singh, Suyog Moogi, Pranshav Gajjar, V V N K Someswara Rao Koduri, Een Kee Hong, Vijay K. Shah
arXiv:2510. 19119v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In networked environments, it is common for users to share recommendations about content, products, services, and possible courses of action.
By Ahmed Sayeed Faruk, Mohammad Shahverdikondori, Elena Zheleva
arXiv:2603. 13059v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history.
By Sebastian Frey, Edoardo Beccari, Maximilian Kranz, Nicol\`o Alberto Pellizzari, Ali Mete Karaman, Qiwei Han, Maximilian Kaiser
The paper reports a previously undocumented failure of global gradient‑boosted tree forecasters when applied to hierarchical aggregates. Training a single tree on individual series causes the model to predict a constant outside its training range, leading to severe under‑prediction of the total (30–50× in production and up to 496× in a public M5 reconstruction). The authors characterize this collapse across five datasets, three tree libraries, and multiple training seeds, and demonstrate that simple preprocessing steps—per‑series scaling, weighted aggregate‑level training, or seasonal differencing—can prevent it.
By Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael Mohammed