The paper introduces ResTGP, a Bayesian residual tree Gaussian Process framework designed for large, high‑dimensional spatial datasets with heterogeneous structures. It decomposes a Gaussian process across a dyadic tree, iteratively computing predictive and residual processes at each node to capture multi‑scale covariance efficiently. The method employs recursive message passing for linear‑time Bayesian inference and demonstrates posterior consistency, with numerical experiments and a storm surge application highlighting its advantages.
arXiv:2607. 10793v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Numerical integration is a cornerstone of various scientific computing applications, such as engineering simulations and model evidence computations in probabilistic machine learning.
The paper presents an exact, efficient solution for the Linear Model of Co‑regionalization (LMC) multitask Gaussian Process by decoupling latent processes under a mild noise‑model assumption. It introduces a full parametrization of the resulting projected LMC, enabling linear‑time optimization and simplifying tasks such as training updates and leave‑one‑out cross‑validation. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that projected LMC is competitive with state‑of‑the‑art multitask GP models while offering greater interpretability and computational ease.
arXiv:2607. 19498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian process (GP) modeling is widely used in computational science and engineering.
arXiv:2608. 11917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-output Gaussian process regression scales cubically in the number of observations times outputs, and dense kernel-matrix methods need bespoke handling whenever different outputs are observed at different inputs.
arXiv:2610.03201v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modelling and quantifying uncertainty in functional relationships. However, they require practitione...
arXiv:2609.36046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across...
arXiv:2607. 00051v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate modeling of wind turbine power curves is crucial for optimal wind farm operation.
arXiv:2607.28844v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous...
arXiv:2609. 27930v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of regression trees with a Dirichlet process prior over tree-parameter pairs, enabling data-driven selection of ensemble size and unifying CART, BART, random forests, and boosting.
The paper introduces improvements to FlowGP, a method for conditional sampling from Gaussian processes outside the linear-Gaussian regime. It adds kernel approximations to scale to high-resolution domains and a new technique for computing marginal likelihood by measuring the work required to steer diffusion toward conditioning statements. These advances enable hyperparameter optimisation within FlowGP and are demonstrated on tasks such as probabilistic downscaling, PDE solution inference on irregular domains, and sea level anomaly field recovery from non-Gaussian satellite data.
arXiv:2610.10214v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) can require many splits to approximate boundaries misaligned with the predictor axes. RoBART assigns each t...
Spatial prediction is a key task in analyses of spatially or spatio-temporally referenced data, typically handled with hierarchical models that combine a process model and a data model. The predictive distribution—conditional on observed data—is often intractable, but guided diffusion modeling from machine learning can sample from it when the likelihood is known and differentiable. The authors demonstrate this approach on Gaussian and non‑Gaussian processes, various data models (direct observations, aggregates, counts, censoring, area‑exceedance), validate against exact and MCMC results, and apply it to methane‑flux inversion over the UK and Ireland, showing accurate sampling, applicability to intractable MCMC cases, and good scalability with dimensionality.