arXiv:2606. 27269v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models.
By Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey, Natalie Klein
arXiv:2606. 27286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mechanistic epidemiological models are widely used to support infectious disease forecasting and public-health decision making.
By Alina Bazarova, Johann Fredrik Jadebeck, Henrik Zunker, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen, Torben Heinsohn, Wolfgang Wiechert, Katharina Noeh, Stefan Kesselheim
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.
By Caroline Tatsuoka, Minglei Yang, Dongbin Xiu, Guannan Zhang
arXiv:2607. 19498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian process (GP) modeling is widely used in computational science and engineering.
By Eric Herrison Gyamfi, Emily L. Kang, Bledar A. Konomi, Guang Lin
arXiv:2602. 19126v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets.
By Michele Caprio, Katerina Papagiannouli, Siu Lun Chau, Sayan Mukherjee
arXiv:2606. 15871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals -- posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks -- across a stream of observations.
By Ali Siahkoohi