OceanMoE is a structured conditional sparse Mixture-of-Experts framework designed for long‑horizon multivariate ocean forecasting. It fuses cross‑variable information to build target‑specific local representations and performs content‑conditioned sparse routing at each spatial location, with the number of active experts adjusted by router confidence. Experiments on ORAS5 data show that OceanMoE reduces aggregate forecasting error and maintains lower geometric‑mean normalized RMSE compared to baselines, while expert allocation varies with prediction targets and locations.
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
arXiv:2608. 04695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID.
The paper presents a statistical framework for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, treating them as localized aggregation systems. It derives oracle risk bounds that separate approximation, expert‑learning, and router‑estimation errors for both dense and sparse routing with evolving experts. The authors also analyze how sparse Top‑K routing balances computational cost with performance, interpret gating geometrically, and explain how shared experts can capture common predictive structure while allowing routed experts to focus on local residuals.
Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID. However, a single parameter-sharing strategy is unlikely to serve all pretrained TSFMs or building clients: fully shared adapters can suppress building-specific temporal behavior, while fully local adaptation discards cross-building transfer.
M3-Former is a multimodal transformer framework that uses large language models to encode vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long‑term trajectory prediction. It builds a unified multimodal representation space, aligns static semantic information with dynamic trajectory features via self‑attention, and employs a dual‑granularity Mixture‑of‑Experts architecture to capture both global route planning and fine‑grained maneuvering behaviors. A Steering‑Weighted Cross‑Entropy loss further improves accuracy on sparse turning events, and experiments on a Danish AIS dataset show consistent improvements over state‑of‑the‑art baselines, reducing ADE and FDE by up to 5.1% in 4‑hour predictions.
arXiv:2606. 15240v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate vessel trajectory forecasting is essential for maritime situational awareness, navigation safety, traffic management, and autonomous navigation.
arXiv:2607. 02829v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing ViT-based weather forecasting models apply uniform computation across all spatial tokens, even though nearby atmospheric grid points often contain similar values and large regions evolve smoothly over time.
arXiv:2606. 12141v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) in regional seas such as the East Sea is crucial for monitoring marine ecosystems, assessing climate risks, managing fisheries, and conducting naval operations.
arXiv:2607. 16731v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Marine biogeochemical forecasting is increasingly important for managing marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle, yet global, seasonal forecast products lag far behind physical oceanography, held back by the complexity of the processes involved and by data scarcity.
arXiv:2606. 25665v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn a model from one or more source domains that generalizes to an unseen target domain without accessing target data during training.
arXiv:2607. 19147v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven methods have revolutionized ocean modeling, yet current approaches rely heavily on complete reanalysis datasets, imposing computational constraints and limiting model performance to that of the training data.
arXiv:2607. 27418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation.