arXiv AI

Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Models

arXiv:2608. 13262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have advanced primarily through architectural innovation, while training regimes for large-scale heterogeneous corpora remain under-explored.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 10

PatchFormer: A Patch-Based Time Series Foundation Model with Hierarchical Masked Reconstruction and Cross-Domain Transfer Learning for Zero-Shot Multi-Horizon Forecasting

arXiv:2601.20845v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require do...

By Olaf Yunus Laitinen Imanov, Derya Umut Kulali, Taner Yilmaz
arXiv AI
Jun 16

FlowState: Sampling-Rate-Equivariant Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv:2508. 05287v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, and are computationally inefficient.

By Lars Graf, Thomas Ortner, Stanis{\l}aw Wo\'zniak, Angeliki Pantazi
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 15

Tabby: An Open Pretraining Recipe for Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2609.13956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this report, we release Tabby, a long context probabilistic time series foundation model, together with a complete and open recipe of how it was bui...

By Shifeng Xie, Bahaeddine Abdessalem, Zehao Xiao, Youssef Attia El Hili, Ambroise Odonnat, Zhiwei Dong, Lei Zan, Themis Palpanas, Jianfeng Zhang, Lujia Pan, Keli Zhang, Malik Tiomoko
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Aurora-X: Built for Extreme Time Series Forecasting

Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.

By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

A Hybrid Attention Model Learning Unified Time-aware Patch Representation for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

The paper introduces a hybrid attention model that learns a unified time‑aware patch representation for irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) forecasting. It employs a time‑aware patch encoding to embed variable‑length intra‑patch timestamps, a time bias attention mechanism to adjust for temporal misalignment and asynchronous cross‑channel dependencies, and a hybrid causal mask on a decoder‑only Transformer to balance historical context with autoregressive forecasting. The authors also curate VersaTSA, a 30 B‑observation dataset preserving native sampling sparsity, and demonstrate state‑of‑the‑art zero‑shot performance on three IMTS benchmarks while remaining competitive on regular MTS tasks.

By Zhihao Lin, Li Lin, Qi Zhang, Kaiwen Xia, Shuai Wang, Jialin Qiao
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

ChronoSteer: Bridging Large Language Model and Time Series Foundation Model via Synthetic Cross-Modal Alignment Dataset

ChronoSteer is a decoupled agentic framework that bridges large language models and time series foundation models by learning cross‑modal alignment from synthetic paired supervision. It converts textual events into revision instructions that steer a frozen time‑series model, discretizes these instructions into a compact codebook to reduce semantic divergence, and then refines the predictions with a two‑stage training strategy. The authors also release a leakage‑controlled multimodal benchmark and report a 25.8% improvement in zero‑shot prediction accuracy over the unimodal backbone.

By Chengsen Wang, Qi Qi, Zhongwen Rao, Lujia Pan, Jingyu Wang