Timer‑M1 is a pretrained multivariate time‑series foundation model that learns with primitives for zero‑shot forecasting. It uses a primitive‑based data synthesis and pretraining pipeline to generate series with shared temporal and relational patterns, assembling them into multivariate samples with distinct channel roles. The model employs gated two‑dimensional Transformer blocks that dynamically allocate cross‑variate attention, achieving top performance on several large‑scale forecasting benchmarks.
By Haoran Zhang, Haixuan Liu, Xingjian Su, Yong Liu, Zhi Chen, Yuxuan Wang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long
arXiv:2606. 07291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences.
By Tao Chen, Yexu Zhou, Zhi Gong, Hengwei He, Hongda Li, Zhewei Chen, Dongjing Wang, Xin Zhang, Decheng Liu, Chunlei Peng, Zheng Chen, Wenyue Ding
TimeBraid is a family of unified models that combine pretrained language models with pretrained time‑series foundation models using interleaved global residual attention layers. The models inherit instruction following, reasoning, and continuous‑signal perception, fusing both modalities into a shared representation space for understanding and generation. The design focuses on aligning representation spaces, grounding language in temporal structure, balancing understanding with generation, and maintaining stable joint optimization, supported by 2.2 M curated series‑text pairs and 4.9 M instruction‑tuning samples. Across diverse benchmarks, TimeBraid competes with larger general‑purpose and task‑specific models.
By Xinyue Wang, Jiacheng Pang, Kun Zhou, Kexin Zhang, Defu Cao, Fan Feng, Faisal, Songyao Jin, Yan Liu, Biwei Huang
arXiv:2606. 09861v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While Next-Token Prediction (NTP) has unified LLM pretraining, its adaptation to unbounded, continuous time series (TS) remains open.
By Yunhao Zhang, Ruiying Qi, Jiale Zheng, Jianfeng Zhang, Lujia Pan, Junchi Yan
arXiv:2606. 08601v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive potential for time series forecasting.
By Peiliang Gong, Emadeldeen Eldele, Chenyu Liu, Ziyu Jia, Yi Ding, Xinliang Zhou, Lianchao Gu, Qi Zhu, Yang Liu, Daoqiang Zhang, Xiaoli Li
The paper introduces a hybrid attention model that learns a unified time‑aware patch representation for irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) forecasting. It employs a time‑aware patch encoding to embed variable‑length intra‑patch timestamps, a time bias attention mechanism to adjust for temporal misalignment and asynchronous cross‑channel dependencies, and a hybrid causal mask on a decoder‑only Transformer to balance historical context with autoregressive forecasting. The authors also curate VersaTSA, a 30 B‑observation dataset preserving native sampling sparsity, and demonstrate state‑of‑the‑art zero‑shot performance on three IMTS benchmarks while remaining competitive on regular MTS tasks.
By Zhihao Lin, Li Lin, Qi Zhang, Kaiwen Xia, Shuai Wang, Jialin Qiao
arXiv:2607. 07500v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series classification (TSC) is dominated by a two-stage paradigm: train a feature encoder -- either from scratch on the target dataset or via pretraining on large corpora -- and then fit a task-specific classifier on top.
By Jaris K\"uken, Shi Bin Hoo, Martin Mr\'az, Frank Hutter, Lennart Purucker
The paper introduces the Foundation Event Predictor (FEP), a scalable in‑context architecture that performs next‑event prediction across diverse event logs using learned, event‑level nonparametric inference. FEP employs causal self‑attention to encode context and target histories, cross‑attention for relevance‑weighted aggregation, and permutation‑robust embedding learning to decouple event IDs from semantics. Trained on 696 real‑world datasets and evaluated on 50 unseen ones, FEP generalizes effectively to new systems without parameter adaptation, often matching or surpassing models trained separately on each target dataset.
Dual-Context Analog Retrieval for Time Series Forecasting (DuoTS) introduces a two-stage forecasting approach that first generates a base forecast and then refines it patch by patch. Each refinement step fuses a current context, which focuses on recent tokens, with a detail context that incorporates retrieved analogs and their subsequent trajectories. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that DuoTS achieves state‑of‑the‑art performance, and ablation studies confirm the importance of both contexts and the refinement mechanism.
By Jung Min Choi, Ngoc Son Le, Ibram Abdelmalak, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-Thieme
Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
The paper introduces the Progressive Memory Transformer (PMT), a transformer variant that adds writable, window‑aligned memory to expose mid‑range representations alongside token and sequence‑level outputs. PMT is trained with a hierarchical learning framework that applies separate objectives at local, mid‑range, and global scales, encouraging the model to capture fine‑grained variation, window‑level motifs, and overall sequence agreement. Experiments on seven UCR/UEA/UCI classification datasets, a cue‑retention probe, and forecasting tasks show that PMT achieves strong low‑label classification performance, competitive multi‑horizon forecasting, and evidence that its memory states encode mid‑range motifs.
By Tord Sture Stangeland, Andreas K\"ohler, Steffen M{\ae}land, Ad\'in Ram\'ires Rivera
arXiv:2605. 11130v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate.
By Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni, Camilla Mazzoleni, Federico Martelli, Philipp Petersen