The paper evaluates short‑term load forecasting methods that are sensitive to high‑demand periods across three distribution grid aggregation levels—area codes, secondary substations, and low‑voltage feeders—using UK and Swiss datasets. It compares statistical baselines, LightGBM, XGBoost, and foundation models Chronos Bolt and Chronos‑2, finding that Chronos‑2 delivers the best high‑demand performance and remains competitive overall. The study also shows that foundation model inference is fast enough for deployment and that peak‑aware evaluation and aggregation‑specific quantile selection can improve operational relevance.
For distribution system operators, short-term load forecasting (STLF) supports congestion management, voltage control, and asset protection. Most existing approaches focus on overall accuracy across a...
arXiv:2607. 01966v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation.
Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements.
arXiv:2607. 15705v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems.
arXiv:2608. 05018v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) play a vital role in the electric power industry.
arXiv:2609.06656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load foreca...
arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.
arXiv:2411. 11350v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning models have shown strong performance in load forecasting, but they generally require large amounts of data for model training before being applied to new scenarios, which limits their effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios.
arXiv:2606. 20918v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for reliable power system operation, energy market planning, and infrastructure optimization.
The paper introduces Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that assigns weights to forecasting models using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. GGEW extends basic weighting through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation, yielding variants such as Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. The authors evaluate GGEW on M4 competition submissions and real-world datasets (Monash Traffic, Electricity, Solar), finding that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is competitive across various settings, though performance varies by dataset, horizon, and deployment protocol.
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
arXiv:2606. 27282v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy.