Predicting extreme price movements in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed return distributions, and severe class imbalance. In particular, rare but impactful events are often difficult to detect using conventional modeling approaches, which typically treat extreme movements as isolated observations.
arXiv:2607. 17555v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting extreme price movements in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed return distributions, and severe class imbalance.
arXiv:2608. 20271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapid proliferation of memecoins on blockchain platforms has increased the risk of fraudulent activities, particularly rug pulls.
The paper presents a method for early detection of fraudulent memecoins (rug pulls) on the Solana blockchain, using a dataset of 6.4 million tokens collected over seven months. It shows that most rug pulls occur within an hour of launch and that classic machine learning models, especially Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), can reliably predict them using only the first five minutes of trading data. Cross‑platform data fusion between PumpFun and Raydium further improves detection by reducing domain shift.
arXiv:2607. 23370v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance.
MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.
arXiv:2607. 23682v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early warning of extreme market volatility is central to financial risk management, but actionable events are rare, nonstationary, and often triggered by exogenous information shocks.
arXiv:2606. 00060v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs.
arXiv:2609.37715v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models are increasingly adapted to new domains through fine-tuning on target data, under the implicit assumption that more targe...
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
The paper introduces PRICE, a systematic framework for adapting Large Language Models to short‑term Bitcoin price forecasting. PRICE combines parameter‑efficient fine‑tuning with LoRA, recursive multi‑step inference, integer‑rounded numerical representation, Context‑Task‑Format prompting, and exact zero‑temperature decoding, all built on a 4‑bit quantized LLaMA‑3 8B model. Ablation studies and comparative evaluations show that each component improves accuracy and reliability, enabling PRICE to achieve the lowest forecasting errors among eight transformer‑based and time‑series foundation models.
The paper investigates how the choice of loss function versus the choice of forecasting model affects cryptocurrency volatility predictions. By comparing seven loss functions and five models, and aligning forecast levels before evaluation, the study finds that after level adjustment model choice dominates performance differences, while loss-induced variations largely disappear. The work clarifies that apparent loss effects in raw comparisons are largely due to forecast level differences rather than intrinsic model performance.
arXiv:2608. 19447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Shocks that spread through the web, such as cybersecurity breach disclosures, can abruptly disrupt financial time series and cause substantial abnormal losses.