Predicting extreme price movements in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed return distributions, and severe class imbalance. In particular, rare but impactful events are often difficult to detect using conventional modeling approaches, which typically treat extreme movements as isolated observations.
arXiv:2608. 20271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapid proliferation of memecoins on blockchain platforms has increased the risk of fraudulent activities, particularly rug pulls.
By Jianghai Li, Pavel Kuznetsov, Yury Yanovich, Konstantin Nott-Whaley, Igor Vodolazov
arXiv:2607. 23682v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early warning of extreme market volatility is central to financial risk management, but actionable events are rare, nonstationary, and often triggered by exogenous information shocks.
By Jin Qian, Zhangzhi Xiong, Mingrui Li, Zhen Liu
The paper presents a method for early detection of fraudulent memecoins (rug pulls) on the Solana blockchain, using a dataset of 6.4 million tokens collected over seven months. It shows that most rug pulls occur within an hour of launch and that classic machine learning models, especially Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), can reliably predict them using only the first five minutes of trading data. Cross‑platform data fusion between PumpFun and Raydium further improves detection by reducing domain shift.
arXiv:2607. 23370v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance.
By Muhammad Abdullah Haroon
MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.
By Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun