arXiv Computation and Language

ProbPlug: A Plugin Uncertainty Network for Reliable Confidence in LLM Binary Classification

arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 28

The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

The paper investigates the "score granularity gap" in black-box large language model (LLM) classifiers, asking how finely a confidence score can be thresholded for deployment. By comparing seven confidence construction methods across 25 model-dataset pairs, the authors find that single-shot verbalized confidence, when properly converted to a probability, ranks well but offers only a few distinct threshold values, limiting operational flexibility. The study also shows that multi-query aggregation can improve weak models but may harm strong ones, and provides concrete guidance for deployment trade-offs.

By Ao Sun, Tian Sun, Jiaxing Geng
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 7

A Calibrated Reflection Approach for Enhancing Confidence Estimation in LLMs

The paper introduces a Calibrated Reflection approach to improve confidence estimation in Large Language Models (LLMs). It combines structured reasoning with a distance‑aware calibration technique, featuring a Maximum Confidence Selection method, a reflection‑based prompting mechanism, and an ordinal‑aware calibration strategy. Experiments on datasets such as HelpSteer2, Llama T‑REx, and a proprietary conversational set show the method works for both conversational and fact‑based classification tasks.

By Umesh Bodhwani, Yuan Ling, Shujing Dong, Yarong Feng, Hongfei Li, Ayush Goyal
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 22

S-EDL: Eliciting Self-Evidence from Sequence Likelihoods for Semantic Calibration of LLMs

S-EDL is a new evidential method that calibrates large language models for open‑ended generation by using the model’s own sequence likelihoods to build a differentiable Dirichlet prior over prompt‑specific semantic classes. This approach optimizes an evidential loss that provides a calibration‑aware training signal without relying on fixed multiple‑choice options. Experiments on four open‑ended benchmarks and three models show that S-EDL reduces semantic calibration error and improves accuracy, offering a framework for trustworthy LLM deployment in complex applications.

By Yawei Li, Jiazheng Li, David R\"ugamer, Bernd Bischl, Yulan He, Mina Rezaei