arXiv:2610.34171v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models have demonstrated that pretraining on diverse datasets enables effective transfer to new forecasting tasks. Classical met...
arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.
Deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art in time series forecasting, yet their accuracy varies considerably across samples, as some instances remain inherently difficult to predict. Reject option mechanisms, which allow models to abstain from high-risk predictions, are well established in classification and regression but underexplored in forecasting.
arXiv:2608. 14054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities.
QUALS is a large‑scale time‑series corpus equilibrium framework designed to improve data efficiency for zero‑shot forecasting. It uses pattern quantization to decode heterogeneous patterns from mixed corpora and a learnability synchronization mechanism to calibrate sampling weights, bridging the optimization gap between simple and complex motifs. Benchmarks show that pre‑training on QUALS yields superior zero‑shot performance even with reduced training budgets.
arXiv:2505. 15354v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-series forecasting is a critical task in various business domains, but it remains inherently challenging.
arXiv:2605. 00015v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalization capability and data efficiency in time series forecasting through large-scale pretraining.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).
arXiv:2606. 08578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recently, large time series models (LTSMs) have gained increasing attention due to their similarities to large language models, including flexible context length, scalability, and task generality, outperforming advanced task-specific models.
arXiv:2609.37255v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are pretrained on heterogeneous collections containing billions of observations, yet their training windows are...
arXiv:2609.39386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are evaluated as forecasters of future values, yet for sparse series many decisions depend only on whi...