Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv:2409. 06282v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series forecasting, particularly in few-shot learning scenarios, is challenging due to the limited availability of high-quality training data.
By Haochen Yuan, Yutong Wang, Yihong Chen, Yunbo Wang, Xiaokang Yang
arXiv:2506.10630v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: To advance time series forecasting (TSF), various methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy, evolving from statistical techni...
By Yitong Zhou, Yucong Luo, Mingyue Cheng, Qi Liu, Jiahao Wang, Daoyu Wang, Enhong Chen
arXiv:2506. 10630v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: To advance time series forecasting (TSF), various methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy, evolving from statistical techniques to data-driven deep learning architectures.
By Yitong Zhou, Yucong Luo, Mingyue Cheng, Qi Liu, Jiahao Wang, Daoyu Wang, Enhong Chen
arXiv:2606. 18049v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights.
By Jan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen, Sebastian Baum
Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information.
arXiv:2607. 20002v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment.
By Shifeng Xie, Ambroise Odonnat, Zehao Xiao, Lei Zan, Malik Tiomoko, Lujia Pan, Themis Palpanas, Boris N. Oreshkin, Chenghao Liu, Keli Zhang
arXiv:2602. 12147v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation.
By Zhongzheng Qiao, Sheng Pan, Anni Wang, Viktoriya Zhukova, Yong Liu, Xudong Jiang, Qingsong Wen, Mingsheng Long, Ming Jin, Chenghao Liu
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks.
arXiv:2511. 09789v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics.
By Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Chao Zheng, Xiaofei Han
arXiv:2602. 11550v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging.
By Sisuo Lyu, Siru Zhong, Tiegang Chen, Weilin Ruan, Qingxiang Liu, Taiqiang Lv, Qingsong Wen, Raymond Chi-Wing Wong, Yuxuan Liang
arXiv:2608. 14054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities.
By Juan Pablo Villa Serna, Rohan Asthana, Vasileios Belagiannis